TL;DR

Weak U.S. jobs data boosts Fed cut odds; Trump ousts BLS chief; Microsoft hits $4T on AI.

Highlights

• U.S. July payrolls rose just 73,000, with May/June revised down by 258,000; unemployment hit 4.25%19.
• Odds of a Fed rate cut in September jumped to 87% post-jobs data; Treasury yields and USD fell1.
• Trump fired the BLS chief, criticized Powell, and is seeking a new Fed chair; Fed Governor Kugler resigned28.
• S&P 500 dropped 1.6% Friday, its sharpest fall in over two months, amid concerns over data credibility and Fed independence2.
• OPEC+ eight raised September oil quotas by 548,000 bpd, ending voluntary cuts; further increases possible by year-end3.
• Microsoft briefly surpassed $4T market cap after strong AI/cloud results; plans $100B+ in FY26 AI/data center capex1218.
• China launched a cybersecurity probe into Nvidia’s H20 chip, complicating U.S. chipmaker’s China expansion; export licenses pending4.
• China imposed a comprehensive ban on crypto trading and mining; U.S. SEC unveiled “Project Crypto” to clarify token/DeFi rules56.
• Bitcoin fell below $113,000 after record ETF outflows and $577M in liquidations; Ether ETFs also saw outflows7.
• Trump confirmed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee starting Aug. 6; China cleared 183 Brazilian exporters to shift supply14.
• Over 1,300 U.S.-listed companies report earnings this week, including Palantir, AMD, Disney, Uber, and McDonald’s; options imply large moves10.
• Berkshire Hathaway reported a $3.76B Kraft Heinz write-down, 4% operating profit drop, and a record $344B cash position; buybacks paused11.

Commentary

Markets open to heightened uncertainty after a weak U.S. jobs report sharply increased expectations for a September Fed rate cut19. The disappointing payrolls and large downward revisions have pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower, while equities sold off on Friday as investors reassess both the economic outlook and the independence of U.S. data agencies12. Political intervention—Trump’s firing of the BLS chief, criticism of Powell, and a surprise Fed governor resignation—adds a layer of risk to policy predictability28.

In commodities, OPEC+ is raising output for September, signaling a more flexible supply stance3. This could limit oil price gains, even as geopolitical risks persist. U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee, and China’s quick move to approve more Brazilian exporters, are likely to raise U.S. coffee costs and shift trade flows14. The energy sector is also in focus with Berkshire Hathaway’s write-down and the EU’s ambitious but questioned U.S. energy import pledge1119.

Tech remains a driver, with Microsoft’s $4T milestone and record AI capex highlighting sector strength1218. However, China’s probe into Nvidia’s H20 chip and the ongoing U.S.–China tech tensions may weigh on chipmakers4. In crypto, China’s outright ban contrasts with the U.S. SEC’s move to clarify digital asset rules56. Still, Bitcoin and Ether are under pressure from large ETF outflows and liquidations, leaving the sector vulnerable to further declines7.

Earnings season hits its peak, with over 1,300 U.S.-listed companies reporting10. Options markets are pricing in significant volatility, especially in AI, consumer, and industrial names. With macro, policy, and sector-specific risks elevated, traders should expect choppy price action and closely monitor developments in labor data, Fed policy, and tech regulation.

TL;DR

China bans all crypto; US SEC eases ETF rules; Bitcoin falls on ETF outflows and liquidations.

Highlights

• China enacts a comprehensive ban on crypto trading, mining, and related services, reinforcing prior crackdowns1.
• SEC launches “Project Crypto,” easing ETF rules for Bitcoin /Ether and clarifying token/DeFi classifications; in-kind ETF creation/redemption approved2.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs see $812M in outflows (Fidelity, Grayscale, ARK); Ether ETFs end 20-day inflow streak4.
• Bitcoin drops below $113,000 amid $577M in derivatives liquidations and risk-off sentiment3.
• Institutional and corporate accumulation persists: Metaplanet plans $3.7B raise to buy Bitcoin 5; Sharplink Gaming amasses 480,000 ETH (~$10B) via Galaxy Digital OTC12.
• Ethereum whale activity is mixed: $300M ETH bought via Galaxy Digital OTC (now at 8.7% unrealized loss); large short and staking losses reported712.
• Arthur Hayes sells $13.5M in ETH , ENA, PEPE, but maintains bullish BTC ($100K) and ETH ($3K) targets for Q3 20258.
• Solana ecosystem active: CME Solana futures volume triples to $8–9B in July10; Chillhouse NFT/token launch triggers rapid price gains9.
• Weak US jobs data and 800,000+ layoffs in 2025 lift Fed September rate cut odds above 80%151718; FOMC dynamics shift after Kugler resignation16.
• OPEC+ ends voluntary oil output cuts19; Trump imposes 39% tariff on Swiss imports, adding to global trade uncertainty20.
• VanEck, Fundstrat, and Saylor reiterate bullish Bitcoin targets ($180K–$500K), citing “digital gold” narrative and rising M2 money supply513.
• Social media recirculates China crypto ban rumors, but no new policy issued; current restrictions unchanged11.

Commentary

China’s formalized ban on all crypto activity reinforces a regulatory environment that has already pushed most trading and mining offshore since 2021111. While the headline may prompt short-term sentiment shifts, actual market impact is limited given prior enforcement and existing capital flight. Traders with Asia-facing exposure should remain alert to secondary impacts on mining supply chains and regional liquidity.

In the US, the SEC’s “Project Crypto” marks a significant regulatory development. The move to in-kind ETF creation/redemption for Bitcoin and Ether products is expected to reduce tracking error and operational friction, potentially attracting new inflows once risk appetite returns2. The rapid response from major exchanges and JPMorgan ’s partnership with Coinbase signal traditional finance’s continued expansion into digital assets, even as ETF outflows and price volatility persist24.

The market is contending with a risk-off environment: Bitcoin fell below $113,000 following large ETF outflows and $577M in liquidations34, while Ether ETFs broke a 20-day inflow streak4. Despite this, institutional and corporate accumulation remains active—Metaplanet’s $3.7B planned raise5 and Sharplink Gaming ’s aggressive ETH buying612 underscore longer-term conviction, even as some whales post short-term losses or expand short positions712. The divergence in whale activity highlights ongoing uncertainty in ETH direction.

Solana is seeing increased institutional and speculative activity, with CME futures volumes tripling10 and the Chillhouse NFT/token launch driving rapid repricing9. This points to continued interest in Layer 1 alternatives and NFT-driven liquidity strategies. Meanwhile, macro headwinds—weak US labor data1518, rising layoffs18, and shifting Fed dynamics1617—have sharply increased the probability of a September rate cut, which could support risk assets if realized.

Traders should closely monitor ETF flows, on-chain whale moves, and Fed commentary for directional cues. US regulatory clarity and macro easing remain the key catalysts for a sustained rebound, but volatility is likely to remain elevated amid global trade and policy developments15161720.

TL;DR

SEC clarifies crypto rules; U.S. AI capex to hit $400B; Ethereum reserve jumps to $10B.

Highlights

• SEC launches "Project Crypto," clarifying that most crypto assets are not securities and greenlighting token sales, DeFi, and self-custody in the U.S.1
• China imposes a full ban on cryptocurrency trading and mining, extending previous restrictions11.
• Ethereum ’s strategic reserve surges from $200M to $10B in four months; institutional adoption and futures activity hit records13.
• CME Solana futures volume triples to nearly $9B in July, reflecting rising institutional interest12.
• Apple forms "Answers" team to build a generative AI search engine, aiming for tighter integration with iOS2.
• U.S. tech giants (Microsoft , Google , Amazon , Meta ) to spend ~$400B on AI capex in 2025; Meta offloads $2B in data-center assets to manage costs3.
• OpenAI’s GPT-5 faces technical and cost hurdles, with only incremental gains over GPT-45.
• Meta ’s attempts to recruit OpenAI talent with $1B+ offers see limited success; competition for AI researchers intensifies8.
• Alibaba releases open-source Wan 2.2 video AI model, driving down generative video costs and spurring commercial adoption6.
• xAI launches Grok Imagine, a text/image-to-video generator, on X for premium users10.
• China’s NOETIX ships 105 humanoid robots in July; China remains the largest robotics market globally9.
• China initiates cybersecurity probe into Nvidia ’s H20 AI chip amid increased orders and ongoing U.S.-China tech tensions7.
• Solana ’s Chillhouse token doubles in value after NFT launch, highlighting renewed crossover between NFTs and memecoins15.
• Blue Origin flies crypto founder Justin Sun on New Shepard’s 14th suborbital flight14.

Commentary

The SEC’s new "Project Crypto" initiative provides long-awaited regulatory clarity for the U.S. digital asset sector, confirming that most crypto assets will not be treated as securities1. This move lowers legal uncertainty for U.S.-based crypto startups and institutional investors, likely supporting increased deal flow and higher valuations for compliant Web3 and DeFi ventures. In contrast, China’s comprehensive ban on crypto trading and mining will push activity and capital out of the region, creating potential openings for non-Chinese firms and investors seeking to capture market share or talent11.

Institutional momentum in crypto is evident, with Ethereum ’s strategic reserve ballooning to $10B and CME Solana futures volumes up sharply1312. Major financial institutions are deepening their involvement in Ethereum , and derivatives activity is at record highs, signaling a maturing market and more robust exit options for infrastructure and compliance startups13. The renewed interest in Solana -linked products and the NFT-memecoin crossover also point to shifting retail and institutional engagement patterns that VCs should monitor15.

AI remains a capital-intensive battleground. U.S. hyperscalers are set to spend approximately $400B on AI infrastructure next year, with Meta seeking external partnerships and asset sales to manage costs34. The sector’s technical and talent bottlenecks are highlighted by OpenAI’s incremental GPT-5 progress and Meta ’s aggressive, but largely unsuccessful, recruitment efforts58. For VCs, this environment favors startups with capital-efficient models, proprietary technology, and strong retention of technical talent.

Open-source AI is gaining traction, as seen with Alibaba’s Wan 2.2 video model and xAI’s Grok Imagine rollout610. This trend is driving down costs and broadening developer access, but will likely compress margins for closed-source incumbents. Meanwhile, China’s robotics and AI chip activity—NOETIX’s shipments, Nvidia ’s regulatory scrutiny—reinforces the need for VCs to closely track geopolitical and supply chain risks in deep tech97.

TL;DR

China probes Nvidia H20 chips; OpenAI’s GPT-5 faces delays; Apple, Meta, Amazon boost AI spend.

Highlights

• China’s Cyberspace Administration has launched a cybersecurity probe into Nvidia ’s H20 AI chip, citing potential “backdoors”; Nvidia ’s 300,000-unit reorder is on hold pending U.S. export licenses 113.
• OpenAI is targeting an early August release for GPT-5, but development faces technical and cost challenges; improvements are incremental over GPT-4, with gains in coding, math, and agentic reasoning 212.
• OpenAI’s ChatGPT has surpassed 5 million paying business users, with enterprise subscriptions up 66% in July 7.
• Apple is increasing AI investment, forming an “Answers” team to build a ChatGPT-style answer engine, and is open to major AI acquisitions and higher data center spending 311.
• Meta , Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft spent $88B on AI infrastructure last quarter; 2025 capex is projected at $364B. Meta is moving $2B in data center assets to “held-for-sale” status to share costs 56.
• Amazon’s AWS growth lagged expectations, leading to an 8.5% stock drop despite record AI infrastructure spending 6.
• Alibaba released open-source Wan 2.2, a text/image-to-video model under Apache 2.0, triggering a price war in generative video tools 8.
• xAI launched Grok Imagine, a text-to-image and video generator, on X (Twitter), with a new funding round potentially valuing xAI at up to $200B 4.
• Meta failed to rehire AI veteran Andrew Tulloch despite a $1.5B offer, highlighting the premium for top AI talent and the appeal of startups 10.
• OpenAI plans to launch Sora 2 (with audio), an agentic browser, GPT-Image-2, an open-source model, and new subscription plans alongside GPT-5 1215.
• Industry-wide, AI progress is slowing as compute, data, and talent bottlenecks meet rising infrastructure costs 212.

Commentary

AI adoption and infrastructure investment remain robust, but the sector is facing rising technical, financial, and regulatory constraints 212. OpenAI’s GPT-5 is set for release with incremental improvements, reflecting broader industry slowdowns due to data scarcity, reinforcement learning challenges, and escalating compute requirements 212. Despite these headwinds, OpenAI’s business user base for ChatGPT continues to grow rapidly, indicating strong enterprise demand for current-generation models 7.

The hyperscalers—Amazon, Meta , Alphabet, and Microsoft—are maintaining record AI capex, but investor scrutiny is increasing as revenue growth lags infrastructure spending 56. Meta ’s move to offload $2B in data center assets and Amazon’s stock drop after underwhelming AWS growth highlight mounting pressure to balance investment with returns 56. Apple is responding to competitive gaps by raising AI spend, forming a dedicated generative search team, and signaling openness to larger AI acquisitions, aiming to catch up in generative tools and personal assistants 311.

Geopolitical and regulatory risks are intensifying. China’s investigation into Nvidia ’s H20 chips, designed to comply with U.S. export controls, underscores ongoing supply chain and market access uncertainties for AI hardware 113. These developments may accelerate efforts to localize supply chains and diversify chip sourcing for both Chinese and global players.

Product innovation remains active, particularly in generative video. Alibaba’s open-source Wan 2.2 has triggered rapid price declines and wider access to advanced video synthesis, intensifying competition for proprietary vendors 8. xAI’s Grok Imagine launch on X (Twitter) and the high valuation targets for xAI reflect continued investor interest in AI-powered content platforms 4. Meanwhile, the ongoing talent war—exemplified by Meta ’s failed $1.5B bid for Andrew Tulloch—shows that top researchers increasingly favor high-upside startups over established tech giants 10.

TL;DR

Messi injured as Miami advance; Lakers extend Doncic; Leclerc takes Hungarian GP pole; Sun sold, moving to Boston.

Highlights

• Lionel Messi left Inter Miami’s Leagues Cup match after 11 minutes with right hamstring soreness; club awaits further medical results1.
• Inter Miami advanced past Necaxa on penalties despite playing a man down from the 17th minute1.
• Lakers signed Luka Doncic to a three-year, $165M extension through 2028-29 after trading for him midseason2.
• Brazil won their ninth Women’s Copa América, beating Colombia on penalties after a 4–4 draw3.
• Charles Leclerc secured pole for Ferrari at the Hungarian GP; McLaren’s Piastri and Norris follow; Lewis Hamilton qualified 12th410.
• Celtics minority owner Steve Pagliuca agreed to buy the WNBA’s Connecticut Sun for a record $325M, with plans to move the team to Boston by 20275.
• Pauline Ferrand-Prévot took the yellow jersey at the Tour de France Femmes after winning the Col de la Madeleine stage; one stage remains6.
• Katie Ledecky won her seventh straight 800m freestyle world title7; Léon Marchand claimed his third consecutive 400m medley world title8.
• Canadian teenager Victoria Mboko upset Coco Gauff at the National Bank Open; American Alex Michelsen reached his first ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final9.
• Tanzania won the African Nations Championship opener; Kenya’s match faces controversy over ticket sales and political tensions12.
• Sharplink Gaming acquired $100M in Ethereum , bringing its holdings to 480,000 ETH, highlighting crypto’s growing role in gaming/betting13.
• Mexican referee Katia Itzel García received death threats after a Leagues Cup match; football authorities condemned the threats and are providing support11.

Commentary

Lionel Messi’s early injury exit is the headline risk for MLS and Leagues Cup markets1. Inter Miami’s shootout win keeps them alive, but Messi’s status will directly impact team odds, DFS usage, and fantasy lineups. The club’s update after Sunday’s tests will be a key data point for bettors and fantasy managers1.

NBA futures and fantasy projections for the Lakers stabilize with Luka Doncic’s three-year extension2. His production since joining the team and offseason fitness gains reinforce his top-tier value2. For the WNBA, the Connecticut Sun’s record sale and planned Boston move signal a shift in franchise valuations and potential market dynamics, with possible implications for player movement and league structure5.

In motorsport, Leclerc’s pole for Ferrari at the Hungarian GP breaks McLaren’s practice dominance, while Hamilton’s struggles continue410. The qualifying spread and rain forecast suggest a volatile race for both outright and prop bets4. In cycling, Ferrand-Prévot’s late surge at the Tour de France Femmes makes her the clear favorite with one stage left6, while Ledecky and Marchand’s continued dominance in swimming offer few surprises for those tracking medal markets78.

Tennis saw notable upsets and breakthroughs, with Victoria Mboko and Alex Michelsen advancing at major events—potential value plays for daily fantasy and outright markets9. In Africa, Tanzania’s CHAN win is overshadowed by controversy surrounding Kenya’s ticket sales, which could affect match atmosphere and outcomes12. Sharplink Gaming ’s aggressive Ethereum buys further illustrate the sector’s shift toward crypto integration—a trend to watch for payment and sponsorship implications13.

TL;DR

Trump’s tariffs hit 70 nations, global stocks drop; OPEC+ raises output; China bans crypto.

Highlights

• Trump imposed sweeping U.S. tariffs (10–41%) on imports from 70 countries, including 39% on Switzerland, 35% on Canada, 25% on India, and 15% on most EU goods; markets fell sharply118.
• S&P 500 dropped 1.6% Friday (worst since May), Nasdaq down 2.24%, as weak U.S. jobs data and tariff escalation drove risk-off moves; VIX rose above 2020.
• OPEC+ (eight members) will add 548,000 barrels/day to output in September, completing the rollback of voluntary cuts; further supply increases possible by year-end2.
• China imposed a full ban on cryptocurrency trading and mining, extending previous restrictions to all digital asset activities5.
• SEC launched "Project Crypto," clarifying U.S. rules for token sales, DeFi, and self-custody; most crypto assets will not be classified as securities10.
• Bitcoin fell below $113,000 amid record U.S. ETF outflows ($811M) and $577M in liquidations17.
• UK FCA will allow retail access to crypto ETNs from October, reversing a 2021 ban9.
• China opened a cybersecurity probe into Nvidia’s H20 AI chip after a major reorder, raising uncertainty for Nvidia’s China business4.
• EU pledged $750B in U.S. energy imports over three years, but analysts question feasibility due to U.S. export limits8.
• Trump ordered deployment of two U.S. nuclear submarines near Russia; China and Russia began joint naval drills near Vladivostok; Ukraine targeted Russian energy infrastructure in Sochi31415.
• Indian state refiners paused Russian oil purchases as discounts narrowed and U.S. tariff threats increased; private Indian refiners continue Russian imports under long-term contracts7.
• Bank of England rate cut wiped out £11B in UK savings income; ECB rate cut expectations moved forward after weak U.S. data619.

Commentary

Global markets closed the week under pressure as the U.S. announced its most extensive tariff regime in decades, targeting 70 countries with duties up to 41%118. The move triggered a broad equity sell-off, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posting their steepest declines in months, compounded by a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report20. Volatility spiked, and export-oriented economies—especially Switzerland, Canada, and South Africa—are bracing for economic fallout1618. The new tariffs, alongside threats of further escalation, are set to disrupt global supply chains and may add to inflationary pressures1.

Fixed income markets responded to the risk-off tone and soft labor data with lower yields and accelerated rate cut expectations20. The Bank of England’s recent cut has already hit UK savers6, and traders now see the ECB likely to ease before year-end19. However, the inflationary impact of higher tariffs and potential supply disruptions could complicate central bank policy, making the outlook for rates less predictable18.

In commodities, OPEC+ is signaling confidence in demand by restoring nearly 550,000 barrels/day of supply in September, but the market faces crosscurrents2. Indian refiners pausing Russian oil buys7, EU ambitions to ramp up U.S. energy imports (despite capacity constraints)8, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure all point to ongoing volatility in energy markets14. The feasibility of the EU’s $750B U.S. energy pledge is in serious doubt given current export and infrastructure limits8.

Crypto markets saw significant regulatory and price action. China’s outright ban on crypto trading and mining will force further industry migration and could pressure global liquidity5. In contrast, the SEC’s Project Crypto and the UK’s move to open retail access to crypto ETNs mark a more constructive regulatory stance in the West910. Despite these positive signals, Bitcoin slid below $113,000 on heavy ETF outflows and liquidations, reflecting broader risk aversion17.

Geopolitics remain a key risk factor. The U.S. deployment of nuclear submarines near Russia3, joint China-Russia naval drills15, and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure all add to headline risk14. Traders should monitor for further trade retaliation, developments in U.S.-China tech tensions (notably the Nvidia probe)4, and any escalation in Eastern Europe or the energy sector.

TL;DR

SEC launches on-chain securities push; Bitcoin ETFs see $812M outflows; $863M in liquidations.

Highlights

• SEC unveils “Project Crypto” to enable on-chain issuance, trading, and settlement of U.S. securities 1.
• U.S. crypto ETFs reverse after record July inflows: $812M outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, $152M from Ether ETFs on August 1 23.
• Bitcoin drops below $113,000, triggering $863.6M in liquidations; Ethereum falls 7% to $3,463 3.
• Bitcoin dominance rises above 62% as CME futures gap at $114,325 is filled; altcoin season index cools 9.
• MicroStrategy (Strategy Inc.) posts $10B Q2 net income, holds 628,791 BTC, and plans to raise $4.2B for further Bitcoin purchases 410.
• Trump Media reports $20M Q2 loss but builds $2B Bitcoin treasury and files for crypto ETF products; Trump’s super PAC receives $26M in crypto donations 520.
• Sharplink Gaming accumulates 464,000 ETH ($1.63B) via OTC deals; separate whale opens 40,000 ETH short with 15x leverage 6.
• Over $800M in leveraged crypto positions liquidated in 24 hours, mostly from longs 7.
• Bitcoin long-term holder supply drops 11% in 30 days; $18.24B in BTC sold by short-term holders in one day 8.
• Ethereum retraces after 7-month high above $3,900, falling back below $3,500 13.
• Solana sees $4.5B in USDC minted in July, economic value rises, and CME futures activity triples 15.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent signals federal support for blockchain; VanEck and Fundstrat set long-term Bitcoin targets up to $500,000 1619.

Commentary

The start of August has seen a sharp reversal in crypto market sentiment, with ETF flows flipping negative after July’s record $12.8B inflows 317. Bitcoin and Ethereum both faced heavy outflows from major ETFs, triggering forced liquidations and a rapid price correction 23. The completion of the CME futures gap at $114,325 and Bitcoin dominance climbing above 62% suggest the market is rotating back to Bitcoin leadership, while altcoin momentum—especially in Ethereum —has cooled 93.

Regulatory signals remain a key driver. The SEC’s launch of “Project Crypto” marks the agency’s clearest support yet for integrating blockchain into U.S. capital markets, with potential long-term implications for asset tokenization and institutional adoption 1. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks further reinforce the policy backdrop, even as short-term volatility persists 19.

On the corporate front, MicroStrategy ’s record profits and new $4.2B capital raise for further Bitcoin accumulation underscore ongoing institutional interest in BTC as a treasury asset 410. Trump Media’s $2B Bitcoin buy and ETF filings, alongside substantial crypto donations to Trump’s super PAC, highlight the growing intersection of crypto, politics, and corporate balance sheets 520. Meanwhile, Solana ’s surging USDC minting and derivatives activity point to continued growth in alternative Layer 1s, despite the current Bitcoin-led rotation 15.

Traders should monitor ETF flows, Bitcoin dominance, and technical levels for further signs of rotation or renewed risk appetite 39. Large-scale ETH accumulation and leveraged shorting indicate ongoing volatility and institutional positioning in Ethereum 6. Macro policy headlines and regulatory developments remain critical for short-term direction 119.

TL;DR

Anthropic leads enterprise AI share; OpenAI’s ChatGPT hits 5M business users; SEC eases crypto ETF rules.

Highlights

• Anthropic surpassed OpenAI in enterprise AI model share (32% vs 25%), driven by Claude’s code generation and output quality; company now at $3B ARR and $61.5B valuation 1.
• OpenAI’s ChatGPT business subscriptions jumped 66% in July to over 5 million, ahead of GPT-5’s August launch and a new lower-priced tier 2.
• Anthropic blocked OpenAI’s access to Claude Code API over terms breaches, reflecting intensifying competition among leading AI model providers 5.
• OpenAI’s GPT-5 will offer incremental improvements in coding, math, and agent control, but faces technical and data challenges 3.
• xAI launched Grok Imagine (text-to-video tool) on X, with a funding round targeting up to $200B valuation 4.
• Meta failed to rehire AI veteran Andrew Tulloch despite a $1.5B offer; Tulloch remains at Thinking Machines, which is nearing a high-valuation Series B 7.
• China’s NOETIX delivered 105 humanoid robots in July; China leads globally with 1,500+ large AI models launched 6.
• Microsoft briefly hit $4T valuation, driven by strong Azure and AI demand; hyperscalers invested $88B in capex last quarter 89.
• SEC’s “Project Crypto” eases ETF rules for Bitcoin/Ether and clarifies token classifications, prompting new crypto ETF filings and institutional partnerships 10.
• Sharplink Gaming accumulated 464,000 ETH ($1.63B) via OTC purchases, highlighting ongoing institutional activity in Ethereum 14.

Commentary

Enterprise AI competition is intensifying, with Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise model share and reporting rapid revenue growth 1. The willingness of corporate buyers to pay a premium for model performance is shifting market share and raising the bar for technical differentiation 1. The API access dispute between Anthropic and OpenAI underscores the strategic value—and vulnerability—of proprietary model APIs, which may influence how startups structure commercial partnerships and protect IP 5.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT continues to scale rapidly in the enterprise 2, but upcoming GPT-5 improvements are expected to be incremental amid industry-wide technical bottlenecks 3. This suggests that future competitive advantage will likely come from specialized capabilities, integration, and talent rather than headline-grabbing model leaps 3. The failed $1.5B talent bid by Meta for Andrew Tulloch further highlights the premium on AI expertise, with top engineers opting for equity and upside in high-growth startups over big tech salaries 7.

xAI’s Grok Imagine launch and the company’s pursuit of a $200B valuation signal that investor appetite for AI-driven content platforms remains high, especially those with differentiated functionality or distribution 4. Meanwhile, China’s rapid humanoid robotics deployment and large-scale model output point to continued global competition and potential opportunities for cross-border investment or technology transfer 6.

On the digital asset front, the SEC’s new crypto policy and ETF rule changes are expected to drive institutional flows and product innovation, as seen in Sharplink Gaming’s sizable ETH accumulation 1014. These regulatory shifts may benefit VC-backed fintech and infrastructure startups positioned for compliance and scale 10.

TL;DR

Anthropic leads enterprise LLMs; OpenAI’s GPT-5 nears launch; Meta, Google expand AI compute scale.

Highlights

• OpenAI’s GPT-5 is nearing release with only incremental improvements over GPT-4; prior “Orion” (GPT-4.5) was shelved due to data and scaling challenges1.
• Anthropic now leads enterprise LLM market share (32% vs. OpenAI’s 25%), driven by Claude’s code generation and enterprise adoption3.
• Anthropic revoked OpenAI’s Claude API access for terms violations linked to GPT-5 development, as open-source models outperform both in some benchmarks5.
• Meta is building a 500,000-GPU AI cluster by 2026; Google deployed a 100,000-TPU cluster for Gemini 2.5 “Deep Think,” both expanding AI compute scale2.
• Meta ’s $1B+ compensation offers are failing to attract top AI researchers, with talent prioritizing mission and equity over pay7.
• OpenAI’s ChatGPT surpassed 5 million paid business users, with enterprise subscriptions now 73% of revenue4.
• xAI launched Grok Imagine, generating images in 3.4 seconds and videos in under 30 seconds, with further speed improvements planned6.
• Tesla found partly liable in a $329M verdict over a fatal Autopilot crash, the first such jury decision8.
• Delta Air Lines pledged not to use AI for personalized pricing after Congressional scrutiny, but is expanding AI-based revenue management tools9.
• Amazon will add ads and sponsored content to Alexa+ subscription conversations, shifting monetization strategy for its AI assistant11.
• China is researching countermeasures against SpaceX’s Starlink, citing concerns over its military and communications dominance12.
• The SEC launched “Project Crypto” to enable on-chain trading and settlement of securities, signaling U.S. regulatory movement on blockchain infrastructure13.

Commentary

The generative AI sector is seeing a shift from rapid model leaps to incremental progress, as OpenAI’s GPT-5 approaches launch with modest gains and faces technical constraints, notably in data quality and scaling1. This slowdown is reshaping competitive dynamics: Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI in enterprise LLM share, particularly in code generation, and is actively defending its position by revoking OpenAI’s Claude API access amid allegations of competitive misuse35. Open-source models are also gaining traction, outperforming proprietary offerings in certain benchmarks and increasing pressure on major vendors to differentiate5.

Infrastructure investment continues to escalate. Meta ’s plan for a 500,000-GPU cluster and Google ’s 100,000-TPU deployment for Gemini 2.5 highlight the growing importance of compute scale, with direct implications for supply chains and power consumption2. However, even with massive capital outlays, Meta ’s recruitment push is encountering resistance, as top researchers increasingly value mission alignment and equity over high compensation7.

On the commercial side, OpenAI’s ChatGPT remains a key revenue driver, now serving over 5 million paid business users, underscoring the importance of enterprise adoption even as technical progress slows4. Meanwhile, Amazon is shifting Alexa+ toward ad-driven monetization11, and Delta is navigating regulatory scrutiny by publicly rejecting personalized AI pricing while still expanding AI-driven revenue management9. Legal and regulatory risks are also rising, as seen in Tesla ’s $329M Autopilot verdict8 and the SEC’s move to modernize securities trading infrastructure via blockchain13.

For AI professionals, these developments signal a more competitive and regulated environment, with slower model progress, intensifying infrastructure demands, and shifting business models. Strategic focus should remain on differentiated enterprise offerings, data sourcing, and regulatory engagement.

TL;DR

NFL trades RedZone/NFL Network to ESPN; Son leaves Tottenham; Sounders rout Cruz Azul 7–0 in Leagues Cup.

Highlights

• NFL transfers RedZone, NFL Network, and rights to seven regular-season games to Disney ’s ESPN for up to a 10% equity stake; deal pending regulatory approval, likely effective 20261.
• Disney to launch direct-to-consumer ESPN streaming at $29.99/month, potentially bundling RedZone and NFL Network1.
• Tottenham captain Son Heung-min announces departure after 10 years; LAFC reportedly leading in pursuit2.
• Liverpool’s £120m+ bid for Newcastle’s Alexander Isak rejected; Newcastle expects only a much higher offer would prompt a sale3.
• PSG’s Achraf Hakimi faces possible rape trial as French prosecutors seek formal charges; remains eligible to play pending judge’s decision4.
• Spanish prosecutors seek 2.5-year prison sentence for Real Madrid’s Raúl Asencio on privacy charges; no trial date set5.
• Real Madrid youth players face separate legal proceedings for alleged distribution of child pornography related to Asencio case5.
• Seattle Sounders defeat Cruz Azul 7–0 in Leagues Cup, largest-ever Liga MX loss to MLS; Sounders lead group, Cruz Azul at risk of early exit6.
• Leagues Cup 2025 offers three berths in the 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup and a $2 million prize6.
• Tottenham’s friendly in Seoul may mark Son’s final appearance for the club2.

Commentary

The NFL’s agreement to transfer RedZone, NFL Network, and additional game rights to ESPN in exchange for equity signals a shift in media strategy, with a direct impact on how fans, fantasy players, and bettors will access NFL content1. Disney ’s upcoming ESPN streaming service, priced at $29.99/month, could become a central hub for live football and scoring highlights, potentially consolidating key viewing options for the 2026 season and beyond1. Regulatory approval is pending, so no immediate changes for the 2025 NFL season1.

In European football, Tottenham will need to address a significant attacking gap as Son Heung-min departs after a decade and 173 goals2. LAFC’s reported interest could see Son move to MLS, affecting both Premier League and MLS fantasy and betting markets2. Liverpool’s aggressive pursuit of Alexander Isak, already rebuffed at over £120 million, highlights ongoing transfer market inflation and could impact both clubs’ attacking setups if negotiations progress3.

Legal developments could affect player availability and team stability. PSG’s Achraf Hakimi faces a potential rape trial, though he remains eligible to play until a judge’s decision4. Real Madrid’s Raúl Asencio and several youth players are subject to ongoing legal proceedings over privacy and child pornography charges, with no trial dates set5. These cases warrant monitoring for potential impacts on squad selection and betting odds.

Seattle Sounders’ 7–0 win over Cruz Azul in the Leagues Cup marks a notable shift in MLS-Liga MX dynamics, with the Sounders now strong contenders for one of three available spots in the 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup6. The heavy defeat puts Cruz Azul at risk of early elimination, which could influence group stage betting and fantasy strategies6.

TL;DR

Stocks fell on weak jobs data and new Trump tariffs; Fed vacancy, rate cut odds, and volatility rose.

Highlights

• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned early, giving President Trump an immediate FOMC nomination; 10-year Treasury yield dropped 14.6 bps to 4.214%1.
• U.S. stocks posted their sharpest losses since April: S&P 500 -1.6%, Dow -1.23%, Nasdaq -2.24%2.
• July nonfarm payrolls missed (73,000 vs. 104,000 est.), with downward revisions and unemployment rising to 4.2%2.
• Trump signed new tariffs (10–50%) on imports from non-trade-agreement countries (Canada, Brazil, India, Taiwan), effective August 72.
• Fed-funds futures now price an 80% chance of a September rate cut; 2-year Treasury yield fell 26 bps to 3.7%2.
• Amazon dropped 8% after cloud growth missed expectations, leading tech sector declines2.
• Gold rose nearly 2% to $3,450/oz; VIX climbed above 20 as risk aversion increased2.
• Trump accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics of “rigging” jobs data, adding political pressure to economic reporting8.
• Trump signaled willingness to negotiate tariffs with Brazil’s Lula, but diplomatic tensions remain3.
• U.S. federal judges blocked Trump administration efforts to expand fast-track deportations and roll back TPS protections6.
• Supreme Court signaled potential review of Voting Rights Act Section 2, raising redistricting uncertainty7.
• Walmart de México CEO resigned after weak Q2 profit; Chile’s Barrientos named interim chief5.

Commentary

Friday’s session was marked by a convergence of weak macro data and new policy shocks, driving a broad risk-off move in U.S. markets. The disappointing July jobs report, with a significant miss on payrolls and downward revisions, fueled concerns over labor market momentum2. This, combined with a late-session announcement of broad new tariffs on imports from major trading partners, sent equities sharply lower and triggered a flight to safety in Treasuries and gold 2. The S&P 500 , Dow , and Nasdaq all closed at multi-week lows, with tech stocks particularly hard-hit after Amazon’s earnings miss2.

Bond markets responded decisively to the economic and policy signals. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply as traders priced in an 80% probability of a September Fed rate cut2. The abrupt resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, allowing Trump to nominate a new FOMC member, added to the uncertainty around future monetary policy direction, increasing the risk of a more politicized Fed in the coming months1.

The tariff announcement reignited global trade tensions, with immediate implications for supply chains and sectors exposed to international trade2. While Trump signaled openness to talks with Brazil, the market remains wary of further escalation and potential retaliation3. Defensive assets outperformed, with gold up nearly 2% and the VIX moving above 20, reflecting heightened risk aversion2.

Political and legal developments added further complexity. Trump’s public accusations against the Bureau of Labor Statistics could undermine confidence in official data, complicating the Fed’s policy calculus8. Meanwhile, federal court rulings blocked key parts of the administration’s immigration agenda6, and the Supreme Court’s move to review Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act introduces new uncertainty ahead of the 2026 midterms7.

Traders should monitor follow-through in risk assets, especially tech and exporters sensitive to tariffs, and watch for any signals on Fed nominations or trade negotiations. Rate expectations and volatility will likely remain elevated into next week.

TL;DR

SEC softens crypto stance; ETH ETFs lead $5.4B July inflows; BTC hits $115.7K record close.

Highlights

• SEC launches “Project Crypto” to modernize securities rules, move markets on-chain, and signals most crypto assets are not securities; Ether explicitly excluded from securities classification120.
• White House publishes national digital asset strategy, urging Congress to clarify CFTC/SEC roles, proposes stablecoin regime, and rules out a U.S. CBDC2.
• Grayscale Solana ETF decision delayed to October; multiple issuers amend filings, industry groups push for liquid-staking tokens in ETF structure3.
• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs see 20-day inflow streak, pulling in $5.4B in July; Bitcoin ETFs face end-of-month outflows as investors rotate into Ether416.
• Bitcoin closes July at a record $115,700, up 10.4% for the month; $805M in leveraged positions liquidated amid volatility65.
• Tether reports $4.9B Q2 profit, holds $127B in U.S. Treasuries; USDT supply reaches $158B, with increased activity on Tron and Solana 78.
• Solana leads in tokenized stock volume ($293M in a month), asset bridging ($690M in July), and stablecoin transfers ($215B in July)8.
• MicroStrategy posts $10B Q2 net income, holds 628,791 BTC , and plans to increase leverage; analysts raise share price targets9.
• Coinbase to offer tokenized stocks and derivatives to U.S. users; Q2 profit jumps but shares drop 8% on revenue miss1011.
• Visa adds PYUSD and USDG stablecoins, expands settlement to Stellar and Avalanche; Circle extends native USDC to Sei and Hyperliquid1213.
• Crypto exchange volumes hit $1.7T in July, led by Binance and DEXs; altcoin options trading hits record $2.2B14.
• Ethereum tops $3,900 for first time in 2025, up 56% in July; Foundation outlines 10-year plan for scaling and quantum security1518.
• Solana-based BonkFun overtakes PumpFun in memecoin launchpad market share and volume17.
• Second Circuit vacates NFT insider-trading conviction of ex-OpenSea manager, raising legal questions for NFT trading19.

Commentary

U.S. regulatory posture toward crypto shifted sharply, with the SEC and White House signaling a coordinated move to bring both traditional and digital assets on-chain12. The SEC’s explicit stance that most crypto assets—including Ether —are not securities, and the launch of “Project Crypto,” reduce compliance uncertainty and clear a path for new product development120. This is already reflected in Coinbase ’s plans to offer tokenized stocks to U.S. users and the flurry of amended ETF filings, particularly around Solana 103. The White House’s blueprint and rejection of a CBDC further clarify the U.S. policy trajectory, with Congress now under pressure to formalize market structure and stablecoin rules2.

Institutional flows remain robust. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs led inflows in July, with $5.4B added and a clear rotation out of Bitcoin ETFs by month-end416. Bitcoin closed July at an all-time high, but volatility remains elevated—over $800M in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, highlighting risk for over-levered traders65. MicroStrategy ’s Q2 results and expanded BTC holdings reinforce the trend of corporates using bitcoin as a treasury asset, while Tether’s record profits and ballooning USDT supply underscore the growing role of stablecoins in market liquidity97.

Solana continues to gain traction, leading in tokenized stock volume, asset bridging, and stablecoin transfer activity8. The memecoin launchpad sector is seeing realignment, with BonkFun overtaking PumpFun in both market share and volume17. Infrastructure developments are also notable: Visa and Circle are expanding stablecoin settlement and cross-chain USDC access, broadening on-chain payment and liquidity options across multiple blockchains1213.

Traders should monitor further regulatory actions, ETF decisions (especially Solana ), and sector rotations between major Layer 1s and DeFi platforms3. Elevated volatility and liquidation risk persist—especially as leverage resets and technical resistance levels are tested5. Legal shifts, such as the OpenSea insider-trading case reversal, may affect compliance and risk management in NFT and DeFi markets19.

TL;DR

OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B, Figma IPO surges 250%, Vast Data nears $30B round.

Highlights

• • OpenAI raised $8.3B at a $300B valuation, with ARR now at $13B and strong investor demand1.
• • Vast Data is finalizing a multi-billion dollar round led by CapitalG and Nvidia at a $30B valuation, with ARR projected to triple to $600M and IPO plans ahead2.
• • Figma’s NYSE IPO jumped 250% on debut, the largest first-day gain for a $1B+ U.S. tech IPO in 30 years, reopening the IPO window for late-stage tech3.
• • OpenAI model checkpoints leaked online, fueling speculation of a near-term GPT-5 launch and open-weight release4.
• • Google DeepMind launched Gemini 2.5 “Deep Think” for $250/month Ultra users, with broader API access planned5.
• • Amazon raised 2025 capex guidance to $118B, mostly for AWS AI/data infrastructure; Big Tech capex now exceeds $345B for 20258.
• • Apple reported 10% revenue growth to $94B, increased AI investment, and signaled openness to larger acquisitions; seven AI-related deals closed YTD713.
• • Reddit posted 78% YoY revenue growth to $500M, swung to profitability, and guided Q3 above consensus; shares surged14.
• • Reddit is integrating AI-powered search to reduce Google dependency and expand direct search traffic9.
• • Google ’s Veo 3 and Veo 3 Fast video-AI models are now broadly available on Vertex AI, with enterprise adoption and IP protections15.
• • Palantir secured a U.S. Army contract worth up to $10B over 10 years, consolidating 75 deals11.
• • L3Harris and Joby Aviation partnered to develop hybrid military VTOL aircraft, with flight tests this fall and demos in 202610.

Commentary

Capital continues to flow aggressively into AI, evidenced by OpenAI ’s $8.3B round at a $300B valuation1 and Vast Data’s pending $30B raise led by Nvidia 2, both with strong institutional and strategic participation. These rounds highlight ongoing investor appetite for both foundational AI model providers and the infrastructure layer, with revenue growth and capital efficiency (Vast Data is already FCF positive) supporting premium private valuations12. The scale of these financings is setting new benchmarks for late-stage rounds and could pull up valuations across the AI stack.

On the exit front, Figma’s 250% IPO pop has revived U.S. tech listing activity, demonstrating pent-up demand for high-growth SaaS and design platforms3. The magnitude of the rally, despite underwriter pricing criticism, will likely accelerate IPO timelines for other mature venture-backed companies, especially those in the AI and software verticals3. Reddit ’s strong results and guidance14, alongside its AI-powered search push9, further reinforce the public market’s receptivity to profitable, data-rich platforms with clear monetization strategies.

Product cycles in AI are accelerating: OpenAI ’s model leak and GPT-5 speculation4, Google DeepMind ’s Gemini 2.5 launch5, and Google ’s Veo 3 video-AI rollout15 all signal ongoing competition in both foundational models and applied AI. Apple ’s increased AI spend and openness to larger M&A deals suggest that strategic buyers will remain active, especially for differentiated IP and vertical solutions713. Meanwhile, Amazon ’s increased capex8 and Palantir ’s $10B U.S. Army contract11 underscore that hyperscaler and government demand for AI infrastructure and software remains robust.

For VC investors, the market is rewarding scale, growth, and defensible technology, but also expects clear paths to profitability and exit. Deal flow in AI infra, SaaS, and data platforms will remain strong, with valuations anchored by both mega-rounds and renewed IPO activity. Strategic and PE buyers are likely to be active, especially as Big Tech and defense primes look to secure unique assets in an increasingly competitive landscape.

TL;DR

U.S. jobs data disappoints, Trump fires BLS chief and imposes broad tariffs, risk assets sell off.

Highlights

• July U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000, well below forecasts; prior months revised down by 258,000; unemployment rate increased to 4.2%2.
• President Trump fired BLS Commissioner McEntarfer after the weak jobs report, raising concerns about political interference in economic data1.
• Trump imposed new tariffs (10–41%) on imports from 70 countries, with Canada, Brazil, Switzerland, and India among those affected; Dow fell ~600 points3.
• U.S. 2-year Treasury yield dropped ~20bps to 3.76% as rate cut odds for September surged to 90%4.
• Cboe VIX rose above 20 for the first time since June, signaling higher volatility10.
• Fed officials Bostic and Hammack remain data-dependent, warn tariffs could lift inflation despite softening labor data618.
• Trump ordered two U.S. nuclear submarines to reposition near Russia, escalating geopolitical tensions5.
• U.S. sanctions disrupted Russian oil flows to India; Indian refiners increased U.S. and UAE crude purchases8.
• U.S. oil rig count dropped to a four-year low (410), reinforcing expectations for slower domestic supply growth9.
• Tesla ordered to pay $329 million in Autopilot crash verdict; shares down 2%11.
• OpenAI raised $8.3 billion at a $300 billion valuation; Vast Data in talks for $30 billion AI infrastructure round1213.
• U.S. crypto ETFs saw record $12.8 billion July inflows, led by Ethereum products, despite $805 million in crypto liquidations1617.

Commentary

U.S. equities closed sharply lower as a combination of weak labor data and aggressive new tariffs weighed on risk sentiment. The July payrolls miss and historic downward revisions signal a clear loss of labor market momentum, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.2%2. Markets responded with a swift repricing of Fed expectations: the 2-year Treasury yield dropped 20bps and futures now price a 90% chance of a September rate cut34. However, Fed officials remain cautious, highlighting tariff-driven inflation risks even as hiring slows618.

The abrupt firing of the BLS chief by President Trump following the jobs report has heightened concerns about the credibility of U.S. economic data1. This, combined with the announcement of broad tariffs on 70 countries, triggered a broad risk-off move—sending the Dow down 600 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower, and the VIX above 20310. Safe-haven flows supported Treasuries and weighed on the dollar 34.

Commodities and energy markets face cross-currents. U.S. oil supply growth looks set to slow with the rig count at a four-year low9, while U.S. sanctions are disrupting Russian oil flows to India and prompting shifts in global trade patterns8. Meanwhile, defense and aerospace could see selective interest after the U.S. moved nuclear submarines near Russia5, but broader geopolitical risk keeps traders defensive.

In tech, AI remains a focus as OpenAI’s $8.3 billion raise and Vast Data’s funding talks highlight continued investor demand1213. Crypto markets remain volatile, with heavy liquidations16 offset by record ETF inflows—especially into Ethereum —on the back of regulatory clarity and a weaker dollar 17.

Traders should monitor for any late-day Fed commentary, further political developments around economic data, and potential international responses to U.S. tariffs. Defensive positioning and volatility hedges remain in focus into the close.

TL;DR

OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation; Google launches Gemini 2.5 Deep Think; Amazon, Apple, Alphabet boost AI capex.

Highlights

• • OpenAI raises $8.3B at a $300B valuation; annual recurring revenue now ~$13B, with rapid sales growth and plans to expand infrastructure and products 1.
• • Google launches Gemini 2.5 Deep Think, a multi-agent reasoning model for $250/month Ultra subscribers, outperforming recent models; API access for developers coming soon 2.
• • Amazon lifts 2025 capex outlook to $118B, with Q2 spend at $31.4B—mostly for AWS AI infrastructure and custom chips; hyperscaler capex projected above $345B this year 3.
• • Apple reports $94B quarter, increases AI spending, and signals openness to M&A; personalized Siri features expected next year 414.
• • Anthropic overtakes OpenAI in enterprise LLM API usage (32% vs. 25%) as enterprise LLM spend doubles to $8.4B in H1 2025; FAL raises $125M to expand generative infrastructure 7.
• • U.S. Army consolidates 75 software contracts in a $10B, 10-year Palantir deal for data analytics and AI tools, streamlining procurement 5.
• • OpenAI removes ChatGPT’s public sharing feature after privacy concerns; de-indexes all public conversations from search engines 6.
• • Alphabet , Amazon , and Apple beat earnings estimates, driven by strong cloud and device demand; AI infrastructure investment continues to rise 814.
• • China’s NDRC pledges further support for AI commercialization and integration with traditional industries, alongside broader economic stimulus 9.
• • Google loses Epic antitrust appeal; must allow rival app stores and payment systems on Android within eight months 10.
• • Microsoft study finds interpreters, historians, and analysts most at risk from AI, while manual labor and specialized healthcare roles remain secure 11.
• • Figma surges over 200% in NYSE debut, reflecting renewed investor interest in AI-adjacent SaaS IPOs; generative AI not seen as immediate threat to core tools 12.
• • Reddit posts first GAAP profit; AI-powered search and data licensing to AI developers drive revenue growth 13.

Commentary

The latest funding and earnings data confirm that capital deployment into AI infrastructure and products remains at historic highs. OpenAI’s $8.3B raise at a $300B valuation 1, combined with hyperscaler capex projections exceeding $345B for 2025 3, signals continued prioritization of compute build-out and model scaling. Amazon , Alphabet , and Apple all posted strong quarters, with each company highlighting expanding AI infrastructure as a strategic focus 814. However, investor scrutiny is rising on how quickly these investments will translate into earnings, as seen in Amazon ’s post-earnings share decline despite robust cloud revenue 15.

On the product and adoption front, Google ’s Gemini 2.5 Deep Think brings multi-agent reasoning to high-end users, setting a new performance bar but also underscoring the high compute costs that limit access to premium tiers 2. Anthropic’s overtaking of OpenAI in enterprise LLM API usage, especially in code generation, reflects a rapidly shifting competitive landscape where enterprise buyers are willing to switch providers for performance and reliability 7. The dominance of proprietary models persists, with open-source adoption declining among large-scale enterprise workloads 7.

Regulatory and policy developments are accelerating. OpenAI’s removal of ChatGPT’s public sharing feature highlights ongoing privacy and data security concerns 6, while Google ’s loss in the Epic antitrust case will force major changes to Android app distribution and payments 10. In parallel, China’s NDRC is emphasizing AI commercialization and rational competition as part of broader economic support 9, and U.S. government procurement is consolidating around large-scale, flexible contracts, as seen in the Army’s $10B Palantir deal 5.

The IPO market is showing renewed interest in AI-adjacent SaaS, as Figma’s 200%+ debut demonstrates 12, while Reddit’s first profit underscores the growing value of AI-powered search and data licensing 13. Microsoft ’s occupational risk study provides further clarity on which job categories are most exposed to AI-driven disruption 11.

TL;DR

Hulk Hogan dies at 71; Verstappen stays with Red Bull; Squiban wins Tour de France Femmes Stage 6.

Highlights

• Florida medical records confirm Hulk Hogan (Terry Bollea) died of a heart attack at 71; WWE issues condolences.1
• Max Verstappen commits to Red Bull Racing for 2026, ending speculation of a move amid recent team leadership changes.2
• Verstappen remains third in the 2025 F1 drivers’ standings, 81 points behind Oscar Piastri after 13 rounds.2
• U.S. President Donald Trump reinstates the Presidential Fitness Test in public schools, effective 2026-27, and launches a new sports council.3
• Maeva Squiban wins Stage 6 of the 2025 Tour de France Femmes with a solo attack, the first French stage win this year.4
• Kim Le Curt retains the yellow jersey; Stage 7 features three categorized climbs in the final 50km.4

Commentary

Hulk Hogan’s confirmed passing closes a chapter for WWE and the broader wrestling community.1 While there are no direct implications for fantasy or betting markets, WWE may adjust programming or tribute segments, which could influence event outcomes and viewership patterns in the short term.1

In Formula One, Max Verstappen’s commitment to Red Bull through 2026 removes a major variable from the driver market.2 With Verstappen responsible for nearly all of Red Bull’s points this season and the team undergoing recent leadership changes, his decision provides stability as teams prepare for the 2026 technical regulation overhaul.2 For fantasy players and bettors, this reduces uncertainty around Red Bull’s competitiveness and Verstappen’s future performance.2

The reinstatement of the Presidential Fitness Test and the creation of a new sports council signal a renewed governmental focus on youth sports and fitness.3 While this has no immediate impact on betting or fantasy, the involvement of high-profile athletes may increase youth sports participation and long-term talent development.3

In cycling, Maeva Squiban’s solo Stage 6 win gives France its first stage victory of the 2025 Tour de France Femmes, but the general classification remains unchanged with Kim Le Curt in yellow.4 Stage 7’s three late climbs could shake up the GC, making it a key watch for bettors and fantasy managers.4

TL;DR

Trump launches sweeping tariffs; Fed independence questioned; Apple, Amazon beat amid tariff, AI headwinds.

Highlights

• Trump imposes new tariffs of 10–41% on imports from nearly 70 countries; Canada’s non-USMCA goods hit with a 35% rate, Switzerland at 39% (pharma excluded), and EU faces a potential 30% levy with talks ongoing 1758.
• Trump urges the Fed Board to oust Chair Powell unless rates are cut, raising concerns about central bank independence 2.
• Apple projects September-quarter revenue above estimates despite $1.1B in new tariff costs; iPhone sales surged as buyers moved ahead of tariff hikes. CEO Cook signals ramped-up AI investment and openness to acquisitions 36.
• Amazon beats Q2 revenue and EPS estimates, but shares drop 8% pre-market on AWS margin compression and higher AI capex; major banks raise price targets 418.
• F5 Networks reports strong Q3 results, raises Q4 guidance; analysts hike price targets 18.
• Bitcoin ends July at a record $115,700, up 10.4% for the month; August historically weak for crypto and equities 1213.
• South Korea’s KOSPI drops 3% on tax hike plans and U.S. tariffs, dragging down Asian tech shares 10.
• Figma triples in NYSE debut, closing near $60B valuation, signaling strong demand for tech IPOs 11.
• China’s NDRC signals more stimulus to support jobs, consumption, and AI sector growth 9.
• XPeng leads July China EV deliveries, while Li Auto ’s sales drop 40% YoY, highlighting sector competition 14.
• UK Supreme Court to rule on car finance mis-selling, with potential multibillion-pound impact for banks 15.
• Trump envoy visits Gaza to assess aid routes amid stalled cease-fire talks 17.

Commentary

US markets face a complex backdrop as Trump’s sweeping tariffs take effect, targeting a wide range of trading partners with rates up to 41% 18. The move raises input costs for US manufacturers and importers, heightens the risk of retaliatory measures (notably from the EU), and injects uncertainty into global supply chains 58. The short grace period before implementation and ongoing negotiations with the EU and others mean traders should expect headline-driven volatility, especially in sectors with heavy international exposure such as autos, tech, and industrials 58.

The President’s public pressure on the Federal Reserve—calling for the Board to sideline Powell unless rates are cut—adds another layer of risk for rates and FX markets 2. Any perceived threat to Fed independence could move Treasury yields and the dollar, with traders watching for signs of a policy shift or institutional pushback 2.

On the corporate front, Apple ’s ability to guide above expectations despite $1.1B in new tariff costs 3 and Amazon ’s Q2 beat (overshadowed by AWS margin pressure and rising AI capex) 418 highlight both the resilience and challenges facing US tech. Analysts remain constructive on Amazon ’s long-term prospects, and Apple ’s pivot to more aggressive AI investment and potential M&A is notable given its cash position 6. Figma’s blockbuster NYSE debut signals renewed risk appetite for high-growth tech IPOs, which could support broader sentiment if volatility remains contained 11.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin ’s record July close and F5’s strong results offer bright spots, but both face seasonally weaker Augusts 121318. Asian markets are under pressure from South Korea’s tax overhaul and the ripple effects of new US tariffs, with tech names particularly affected 108. China’s NDRC is preparing further stimulus, which could eventually support global demand, but immediate impacts are limited 9.

Traders should monitor tariff implementation details, Fed commentary, and retaliatory trade moves. Key sectors to watch include tech, autos, and industrials, while rates and FX could react sharply to any Fed-related developments 1258.

TL;DR

Trump tariffs hit 70 countries; global equities slide; China halts US-bound investments.

Highlights

• Trump imposes tariffs of 10–41% on imports from nearly 70 countries; Canada faces 35% duty, EU threatened with 30% tariffs pending talks120.
• China halts approvals for US-bound investments; accuses US of cyberattacks on defense contractors210.
• Global equities fall sharply; Asia leads declines, with Korea’s KOSPI down nearly 4% on tariffs and domestic tax proposals35.
• US dollar strengthens 1.5% this week; two-year Treasury yields ease to 3.94% as risk aversion rises3.
• Apple projects $1.1B in additional Q3 costs from new tariffs; continues supply chain diversification14.
• China’s top solar firms cut 31% of jobs after $60B in losses; Beijing signals possible industry intervention6.
• PBOC sets firmer yuan fix, but CNY hits two-month low on growth and rate differential concerns4.
• SEC launches “Project Crypto” to modernize digital asset rules; Coinbase to offer tokenized stocks to US users1118.
• Tether posts record $4.9B Q2 profit, now holds $127B in US Treasuries12.
• Visa expands stablecoin settlement to new tokens and blockchains13.
• UK Supreme Court to rule on car finance mis-selling; banks face multibillion-pound compensation risk19.
• South Africa cuts rates to 7% as inflation eases; Panama moves to void CK Hutchison’s canal port concession1715.
• US envoy heads to Moscow as Ukraine cease-fire deadline nears; further sanctions threatened9.
• Pakistan’s Cnergyico books first US oil cargo after Trump-backed trade deal, diversifying supply16.

Commentary

The latest round of US tariffs—ranging up to 41% and targeting a broad swath of countries—has triggered a pronounced risk-off move across global markets13. Asian equities bore the brunt, with South Korea’s KOSPI falling nearly 4% amid both US trade actions and new domestic tax proposals35. The US dollar’s continued strength and lower Treasury yields reflect heightened risk aversion, while gold and other safe havens see renewed interest312. Apple ’s warning of a $1.1B Q3 tariff hit underscores the immediate impact on multinational earnings and supply chains14.

China’s response has been swift, halting approvals for outbound US-bound investments and escalating cybersecurity accusations210. The yuan , despite a firmer central bank fix, continues to weaken as growth concerns and US rate differentials weigh4. In parallel, China’s solar sector faces deep structural challenges, with major manufacturers cutting a third of their workforce after steep losses6. Beijing is signaling a willingness to intervene, but industry consolidation remains uncertain67.

The US is also pressuring the EU and Canada with tariff threats, while negotiations continue120. The EU is readying countermeasures, raising the risk of further trade disruptions, particularly in autos and industrials20. Meanwhile, the UK Supreme Court’s pending car finance ruling could trigger significant liabilities for banks, adding to financial sector uncertainty19.

In digital assets, regulatory momentum is building. The SEC’s “Project Crypto” and Visa ’s stablecoin expansion point to deeper blockchain integration in financial infrastructure1113. Tether ’s record profit and growing US Treasury holdings highlight the increasing intersection between crypto and traditional markets12. Coinbase ’s move to offer tokenized stocks signals further convergence, especially as regulatory clarity improves18.

Traders should monitor upcoming tariff deadlines, central bank signals, and key data releases for further volatility. Watch for continued dollar strength, pressure on EM currencies, and sector rotation in equities as trade and regulatory risks evolve34.

TL;DR

Apple, Amazon, Alphabet beat; U.S. sets 15% Korea tariff; Trump targets drug prices, pharma pressured.

Highlights

• U.S. to impose 15% tariff on all South Korean imports; Seoul commits $350B to U.S. investments and $100B in American energy purchases 1.
• Alphabet , Amazon , and Apple beat earnings estimates; all highlight rising AI-related capital spending 29.
• Apple warns tariffs will add $1.1B to September costs, with two-quarter impact near $2B; accelerating supply chain shift to India and Vietnam 5.
• Trump orders 17 major drugmakers to match U.S. prices to lowest overseas levels within 60 days, raising pharma sector uncertainty 4.
• Coinbase launches "everything exchange" for tokenized stocks and derivatives; SEC starts updating securities rules for blockchain trading 6.
• Coinbase Q2 profit jumps on investment gains, but revenue misses; shares fall 8% post-market 7.
• Reddit shares rise 10% after 78% revenue growth and strong Q3 outlook; user and ad growth accelerate 11.
• Cloudflare beats Q2 estimates, raises 2025 outlook; shares hit all-time high on 28% revenue growth 12.
• Roku posts surprise Q2 profit, raises 2025 guidance, and announces $400M buyback; platform revenue and ad demand up 14.
• First Solar beats Q2 estimates, raises 2025 revenue forecast, and reports strong bookings; shares up 4–5% post-market 15.
• U.S. Army signs up to $10B software deal with Palantir , consolidating 75 contracts for data analytics and AI 8.
• U.S. keeps 35% Canada tariff threat alive; U.S.–EU trade talks stall on metals and digital taxes 13.

Commentary

Tech earnings continue to anchor market sentiment, with Alphabet , Amazon , and Apple all beating expectations and signaling ongoing investment in AI infrastructure 29. Apple ’s strong quarter was tempered by a disclosure of nearly $2B in tariff costs over two quarters, and a warning that September expenses will rise further if trade policy holds 5. The company is moving more manufacturing to India and Vietnam, but supply chain risk remains tied to tariff developments 5.

Trade policy is again in focus. The U.S.–South Korea agreement averts a steeper tariff but locks in a 15% rate, while Canada faces a 35% tariff threat if talks fail 113. U.S.–EU negotiations remain unresolved on metals and digital taxes 13. These moves increase cost uncertainty for multinationals, especially in tech, autos, and industrials. Pharma stocks face a new overhang after Trump’s directive for 17 major drugmakers to match the lowest global prices in the U.S. within 60 days, though enforcement and legal authority are unclear 4.

In crypto and fintech, Coinbase ’s profit jump was driven by investment gains, but a revenue miss and cautious trading outlook sent shares down 8% after hours 7. The launch of its "everything exchange" and the SEC’s willingness to update securities rules for blockchain trading could have longer-term implications for market structure and competition with traditional brokerages 6.

Growth and tech-adjacent names outperformed after hours: Reddit surged on strong user and revenue growth 11, Cloudflare raised guidance and hit all-time highs 12, Roku posted a surprise profit and buyback 14, and First Solar delivered a beat and raised its outlook 15. Palantir ’s $10B Army contract consolidates government software spending, supporting the U.S. defense tech sector 8.

Traders should monitor tariff headlines, pharma sector responses, and any signals on U.S. trade or monetary policy. The market remains sensitive to supply chain and cost risks, even as tech and growth names show resilience.

TL;DR

White House, SEC clarify crypto rules; ETF approvals accelerate; Ethereum ETFs hit record inflows.

Highlights

• White House releases digital asset framework: CFTC to oversee non-security crypto, banks must serve crypto firms, and retail CBDC remains banned 117.
• SEC launches “Project Crypto,” signals most tokens are not securities, and directs new rules for tokenization and DeFi 23.
• Crypto ETF approvals streamlined to 75 days; ProShares launches leveraged XRP and Solana ETFs; Polkadot ETFs likely by fall 4.
• Ethereum spot ETFs set 19-day inflow record, now holding nearly 5% of ETH supply; BlackRock and Grayscale dominate 5.
• JPMorgan partners with Coinbase for direct credit card funding and eyes Bitcoin/Ether-backed lending 6.
• Visa adds PYUSD and USDG stablecoins, expands settlement to Stellar and Avalanche 7.
• Tether posts $4.9B Q2 profit, holds $127B in Treasuries, and issues $20B in new stablecoins YTD 8.
• MicroStrategy reports $10B profit on Bitcoin rally, files for $4.2B share sale to buy more BTC 9.
• Coinbase to offer tokenized stocks, derivatives, and prediction markets to U.S. users 10.
• Circle deploys native USDC and cross-chain protocol to Sei and Hyperliquid, boosting DeFi liquidity 11.
• Ether treasuries surpass $10B across 64 entities; major institutional ETH purchases via Pantera-backed Ether Machine and Galaxy Digital 13.
• Ethereum marks 10 years of uptime, outlines Fusaka and Glamsterdam upgrades; prediction markets see high probability of new ETH all-time high 14.

Commentary

U.S. policymakers and regulators are moving rapidly to clarify the digital asset landscape. The White House blueprint and SEC’s “Project Crypto” both emphasize clearer token classification, with most tokens likely outside SEC jurisdiction, and a push for CFTC oversight of spot crypto 13. The explicit ban on a retail CBDC and mandates for banks to serve crypto firms remove key regulatory uncertainties 117. These developments are expected to reduce compliance friction and support broader institutional engagement, particularly for non-security tokens and stablecoins 120.

The regulatory shift is already reflected in product launches and capital flows. The SEC’s streamlined ETF approval is accelerating new listings, with leveraged XRP and Solana ETFs live and Polkadot ETFs on the horizon 4. Ethereum spot ETFs continue to absorb supply at a record pace, now holding nearly 5% of all ETH, while institutional treasury allocations and whale purchases reinforce ETH’s status as a reserve and yield asset 513. MicroStrategy ’s $10B profit and new share sale for further Bitcoin accumulation highlight ongoing corporate adoption 9.

Traditional finance is deepening its crypto integration: JPMorgan ’s Coinbase partnership will allow direct credit card funding and stablecoin rewards, while Visa ’s expanded stablecoin settlement supports broader use of PYUSD and USDG across four blockchains 67. Tether ’s record profits and growing Treasury holdings underscore stablecoins’ expanding role as both liquidity instruments and non-sovereign dollar proxies 8.

For traders, the focus should remain on ETF product launches, large-scale treasury moves, and institutional partnerships. Ethereum ’s upgrade roadmap and sustained inflows position it as a key asset to watch, while regulatory clarity and new tokenization pathways could benefit DeFi, altcoins, and tokenized asset platforms 142. Monitor Congressional progress on crypto bills and further ETF approvals as near-term catalysts 17.