TL;DR

US tightens China chip controls, GDP beats at 3.3%, Fed cut odds boost gold to record highs.

Highlights

• US revokes export waivers for Intel , Samsung, and SK Hynix’s China chip plants; 120-day transition before new license requirements12.
• Section 301 tariff exclusions on 178 Chinese import categories extended to Nov. 29, 20252.
• US Q2 GDP revised up to 3.3% annualized, beating expectations; Canadian GDP contracts 1.6% on US tariffs313.
• US core PCE inflation at 2.9% YoY in July, matching forecasts but above Fed’s 2% target4.
• Fed funds futures imply 87% probability of a September rate cut5.
• Gold trades near record highs above $3,500/oz as rate-cut expectations rise6.
• Affirm shares surge up to 22% on strong Q4 results and positive FY26 guidance7.
• BYD shares fall over 7% after Q2 profit drops 30% amid China EV price war8.
• PepsiCo invests $585M in Celsius, raising stake to 11%; Celsius shares up 7.6% pre-market14.
• CDC faces leadership upheaval and staff walkouts after director’s ouster9.
• Turkey halts all trade with Israel and closes airspace to Israeli planes10.

Commentary

US markets are processing a mix of macro, policy, and corporate news into the close. The revocation of chip equipment export waivers for Intel , Samsung, and SK Hynix’s China plants tightens US controls on advanced semiconductor technology, increasing supply chain uncertainty for global chipmakers with China exposure12. However, the extension of tariff exclusions on a broad set of Chinese imports signals a measured approach, balancing inflation concerns with ongoing tech restrictions2. Semis and related supply chain names may see added volatility as these changes take effect over the coming months.

On the macro front, US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% annualized, reflecting resilient consumer and business spending3. This stands in sharp contrast to Canada’s 1.6% contraction, largely driven by new US tariffs on key Canadian exports313. Meanwhile, July core PCE inflation came in at 2.9%—still above the Fed’s target but in line with expectations4. Despite sticky inflation, futures markets are now pricing in an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut in September5, which is supporting gold near record highs and providing a tailwind for rate-sensitive equities6.

In corporate action, Affirm’s strong quarter and upbeat guidance are driving a sharp rally in fintech7, while PepsiCo’s $585M investment to lift its Celsius stake highlights ongoing M&A and partnership momentum in beverages14. BYD’s profit miss and share drop serve as a caution for global EV exposure to China’s margin pressures8. The CDC’s leadership crisis and staff walkouts introduce a new risk for US public health infrastructure, though immediate market impact appears limited9.

Geopolitical risk is elevated as Turkey halts all trade with Israel and closes its airspace, adding a new layer of uncertainty for regional markets and potentially for energy flows if tensions escalate further10.

TL;DR

Alibaba chip hits Nvidia; US ends $800 duty-free imports; PCE inflation to guide Fed rate bets.

Highlights

• Alibaba unveiled a new AI inference chip compatible with Nvidia software, sending Nvidia shares down 1.2% pre-market; Alibaba also missed Q1 revenue forecasts, with strong cloud growth offset by weak e-commerce 110.
• The US ended the $800 duty-free parcel rule, imposing tariffs on all imports; global e-commerce platforms like Etsy and eBay fell as international sellers paused US shipments, and logistics disruptions are expected 3.
• The Indian rupee hit a record low of 88/USD as new US tariffs on Indian goods triggered equity outflows and pressured the currency 7.
• Israel declared Gaza City a combat zone and began a new assault, ending humanitarian pauses and escalating regional tensions 2.
• US Senator Wicker visited Taiwan, reaffirming security ties as China protested and increased military activity around the island 5.
• Russian officials rejected Western security plans for Ukraine, warning against NATO troop deployments and escalating rhetoric 4.
• PepsiCo increased its stake in Celsius Holdings to 11% with a $585 million investment; Celsius shares rose 7.6% pre-market 11.
• BYD’s H1 revenue surpassed Tesla ’s for the first time, but margins remain under pressure from EV price competition; China’s major banks reported flat profits on margin squeeze 1219.
• UK bank stocks dropped after calls for an £8 billion windfall tax on Bank of England reserves 9.
• Ethereum ETFs attracted $1.2 billion in August net inflows, outpacing Bitcoin for six consecutive weeks 18.
• Global markets are steady ahead of US PCE inflation data; US indices at record highs, with rate-cut bets in focus 20.
• Protests in Jakarta triggered a 2% drop in Indonesia’s main equity index and a weaker rupiah 14.

Commentary

US equity futures are steady as traders await the July PCE inflation print, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs 20. The inflation data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to set the tone for rate expectations into the September FOMC meeting. A softer-than-expected reading could reinforce the prevailing view of a 25bp Fed cut, while a surprise to the upside may prompt a quick re-pricing in rates, the dollar, and risk assets 20.

Tech and AI hardware are in focus after Alibaba ’s new AI inference chip launch, which pressured Nvidia shares pre-market 110. The chip’s compatibility with Nvidia’s software highlights competitive risks for US semiconductor leaders, even as Alibaba’s own results missed revenue and profit expectations outside its strong cloud division 110. The broader tech sector remains sensitive to both US-China competition and ongoing AI investment cycles 120.

The abrupt end of the US duty-free parcel rule is causing immediate disruption across global e-commerce and logistics. Shares of Etsy and eBay are under pressure as international sellers suspend US shipments and shipping costs rise 3. This policy shift is also contributing to currency and equity volatility abroad, notably with the Indian rupee hitting new lows and outflows from Indian equities accelerating 37.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. The escalation in Gaza 2, renewed US-Taiwan engagement amid heightened Chinese military activity 5, and Russia’s rejection of Western Ukraine security proposals 4 all add to the potential for safe-haven flows. Meanwhile, sector rotation is evident: Celsius surged on fresh investment from PepsiCo 11, while UK banks underperformed on windfall tax concerns 9. In crypto, institutional interest is shifting toward Ethereum, as evidenced by sustained ETF inflows and on-chain activity 18.

Traders should monitor the PCE inflation release for immediate rate and dollar direction, and watch for volatility in US tech, e-commerce, and sectors exposed to global trade and geopolitical risk 20.

TL;DR

S&P 500 hits 6,500; Nvidia slips on China chip woes; Trump sets new small-package import duties.

Highlights

• S&P 500 closed above 6,500 for the first time; Dow also hit a record, driven by a Q2 GDP revision to 3.3% and lower jobless claims 11.
• Nvidia shares slipped ~2% after confirming no H20 AI chip orders from China; ongoing export uncertainty persists despite strong revenue growth 1.
• Dell raised its FY26 revenue outlook to $109B on AI server demand but issued soft Q3 profit guidance; shares fell ~5% after hours 3.
• HP Inc. and Autodesk beat earnings estimates on AI-driven demand; Best Buy posted solid sales but maintained a cautious outlook due to tariffs 3.
• Ulta Beauty beat Q2 estimates, raised FY25 outlook, and shares rose 6% on continued strong beauty demand 5.
• Affirm Holdings jumped 10% after a strong EPS beat and 43% GMV growth, signaling ongoing BNPL momentum 6.
• Trump administration announced $80–$200 flat duties on all incoming small packages for six months, with product-specific tariffs to follow 2.
• Nvidia began talks with the White House on Blackwell chip export approvals to China; process remains at an early stage 4.
• IREN Limited secured Nvidia partner status, announced a major AI cloud expansion to 10,900 GPUs by end-2025, and reported record revenue 12.
• 21Shares filed for a staked Sei token ETF with the SEC, adding to the growing US crypto ETF pipeline 7.
• CDC leadership turmoil escalated with the ouster of Director Monarez, staff walkouts, and senior resignations 89.
• Country Eggs LLC expanded its recall after a Salmonella outbreak sickened at least 95 people in 14 states 10.

Commentary

US equities extended their rally, with the S&P 500 closing above 6,500 for the first time, supported by stronger Q2 GDP data and a continued decline in jobless claims. These macro signals reinforced the market’s view of a resilient US economy, helping offset some sector-specific headwinds and keeping volatility low 11.

AI hardware and infrastructure remain a central market theme. Nvidia ’s revenue growth and sector-wide AI demand (as seen in Dell , HP , and Autodesk results) continue to drive tech leadership, but China export restrictions are a clear overhang. Nvidia ’s lack of H20 chip sales to China 1 and the slow progress on Blackwell export approvals 4 highlight ongoing regulatory risk. Dell ’s upbeat annual outlook was overshadowed by cautious profit guidance, suggesting margin pressures as AI hardware demand scales 3.

Consumer and retail results were mixed. Ulta Beauty ’s strong quarter and raised outlook point to resilient discretionary spending in select categories 5, while Best Buy ’s flat guidance and tariff concerns underscore persistent margin risks from shifting trade policy 3. The Trump administration’s move to impose flat duties on all small-package imports—transitioning to product-specific tariffs—signals further tightening of US trade policy, with potential implications for retail supply chains, inflation, and consumer sentiment 2.

Fintech and crypto activity remains robust. Affirm’s strong quarter and upbeat GMV guidance indicate continued demand for alternative financing 6. IREN ’s expansion into Nvidia -powered AI cloud services reflects the ongoing convergence of crypto infrastructure and high-performance computing 12. The 21Shares staked Sei ETF filing adds to the growing queue of digital asset products seeking SEC approval, signaling persistent institutional interest in crypto exposure 7.

Healthcare and regulatory risk are in focus following leadership upheaval at the CDC, which could have implications for health sector sentiment and policy oversight 89. Traders should watch Friday’s PCE inflation data for clues on the Fed’s next move, monitor US-China tech policy developments, and remain alert to any fallout from CDC instability.

TL;DR

S&P 500 hits record; US GDP revised up; Nvidia, Intel, and EU-US trade drive sector moves.

Highlights

• S&P 500 hits record high above 6,500, extending 2025 rally to 33% since April5.
• US Q2 GDP revised up to 3.3%, with jobless claims falling and inflation measures stable2.
• Nvidia in talks with Trump administration to sell Blackwell AI chips to China; shares rebound1.
• Intel receives $5.7B in CHIPS Act funds; Altera acquisition close; US equity stake deal pending8.
• EU fast-tracks removal of US industrial tariffs; US to cut auto duties on EU cars to 15% from 27.5%6.
• France, Germany, UK trigger UN snapback sanctions on Iran, raising risk of renewed oil market pressure3.
• US 30-year mortgage rates fall to 6.56%, a 10-month low, though still above pre-pandemic levels4.
• CFTC clarifies rules for offshore crypto exchanges, reopening legal US access to major platforms12.
• Tether mints $2B USDT in 24 hours, announces native USDT launch on Bitcoin via RGB protocol1320.
• JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued vs. gold , sees fair value at $126K by end-202514.
• CrowdStrike warns of slower revenue growth after IT outage; multiple brokerages cut price targets11.
• Congressional leaders seek urgent talks to avert Sept. 30 government shutdown amid Medicaid and spending disputes15.

Commentary

US equities closed at new highs, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6,500, as investors digested stronger-than-expected macro data and a series of sector-specific headlines5. The upward revision of Q2 GDP to 3.3% and a drop in jobless claims reinforce the narrative of a resilient US economy, with inflation readings remaining in check2. This macro backdrop continues to support risk assets, even as select names—such as CrowdStrike —face idiosyncratic headwinds11.

Semiconductors remain in focus: Nvidia ’s ongoing negotiations with the Trump administration over Blackwell chip sales to China could unlock substantial revenue if restrictions ease1, while Intel ’s $5.7B CHIPS Act disbursement and pending Altera deal highlight continued US investment in domestic chip capacity8. These developments are key for tech sector sentiment and may influence broader US-China trade dynamics.

On the policy front, the EU’s accelerated removal of US industrial tariffs and the US’s planned auto duty cuts should benefit transatlantic industrials and automakers, reducing trade friction6. However, the E3’s activation of UN snapback sanctions on Iran raises the risk of renewed volatility in energy markets, particularly if Iranian oil exports are further restricted3. Mortgage rates have eased to a 10-month low, offering some relief to US housing, but affordability remains constrained4.

Crypto markets are seeing regulatory tailwinds: the CFTC’s new guidance is set to expand US access to global crypto exchanges, likely boosting liquidity12. Tether ’s $2B USDT mint and native launch on Bitcoin ’s RGB protocol further signal growing infrastructure and institutional engagement1320. JPMorgan’s note calling Bitcoin undervalued versus gold may provide additional support for digital asset prices14.

Traders should monitor late-session moves in large-cap tech, autos, and energy, as well as potential headline risk from Washington, where government funding talks remain unresolved15. Macro data and policy signals remain constructive, but geopolitical and regulatory developments could drive volatility into the close.

TL;DR

US GDP revised up, Nvidia’s AI growth slows, Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Indian imports.

Highlights

• US Q2 GDP revised up to 3.1%; core PCE inflation steady at 2.6%, above Fed target; jobless claims stable; Treasury yields rise ahead of Fed Governor Waller’s speech1.
• Nvidia posts record $46.7B Q2 revenue (+56% YoY), but data-center sales slightly miss; shares down 2–3% after hours as AI growth moderates2.
• Trump administration imposes 50% tariffs on Indian imports to pressure Russian oil flows; oil markets volatile, WTI near $643.
• Best Buy beats Q2 estimates but maintains cautious FY outlook due to tariff and margin concerns; shares down ~4% pre-market9.
• TSMC and Amkor to build major chip packaging facility in Arizona; Apple to secure half of TSMC’s 2nm output; 1.4nm fab to break ground in Taiwan10.
• White House fires CDC chief Monarez after vaccine policy clash with RFK Jr.; top CDC officials resign; FDA narrows Covid-19 vaccine authorization to high-risk groups5.
• Berkshire Hathaway raises Mitsubishi stake above 10%, increasing influence in Japanese trading houses12.
• Pemex’s Dos Bocas refinery outage shifts Maya crude processing to Deer Park, Texas, highlighting operational risk8.
• BYD overtakes Tesla in European EV sales as July registrations rise 5.9%; battery-electric and plug-in hybrid demand strong15.
• American Bitcoin, backed by Trump’s sons, to list on Nasdaq in September via merger; Ark Invest adds $15.6M of BitMine as Ether nears record highs1620.
• China to cut over 90M tonnes of coal-based steel output by 2026, cap coal production, and accelerate domestic iron ore projects6.

Commentary

US macro data remain firm with Q2 GDP revised up and core PCE inflation holding above target, keeping pressure on the Fed as yields climb ahead of Governor Waller’s speech1. The market’s focus is on whether the Fed signals a more hawkish stance, especially with inflation still above 2%. Stable jobless claims and subdued pending home sales point to a resilient but mixed consumer backdrop1. The ECB’s warning about political pressure on the Fed adds another layer of uncertainty for rates and the dollar7.

In equities, Nvidia ’s strong headline quarter was tempered by a slight miss in data-center sales and signs of moderating AI demand, triggering a modest pullback in the stock2. Best Buy ’s beat was overshadowed by management’s cautious outlook on tariffs and margins, reflecting broader retail sector concerns about US-China trade policy and consumer sensitivity to higher prices9. TSMC ’s US expansion and Apple ’s large 2nm chip allocation reinforce the ongoing US tech supply chain buildout, with implications for US semiconductor and equipment names10.

Geopolitical and commodity risks are front and center. Trump’s new tariffs on Indian imports to curb Russian oil revenues have injected fresh volatility into crude, with WTI oscillating around $643. The move could disrupt global supply chains if India retaliates or shifts sourcing3. The Pemex Dos Bocas outage8 and China’s planned steel and coal output cuts6 add further complexity to commodity flows and pricing, with potential knock-on effects for US energy and materials sectors.

Healthcare faces renewed uncertainty after the White House removed the CDC chief following a policy dispute with RFK Jr., triggering multiple high-level resignations and a narrowing of vaccine guidance5. This may weigh on healthcare sentiment and policy visibility. Meanwhile, crypto-related equities could see activity with American Bitcoin’s upcoming Nasdaq listing16 and Ark Invest’s increased stake in BitMine as Ether approaches record highs20.

TL;DR

Nvidia slips post-earnings on data-center miss; S&P 500 hits record; Fed signals September rate cut.

Highlights

• • Nvidia beat Q2 estimates and announced a $60B buyback; shares fell 4–5% after hours on a slight data-center revenue miss and regulatory uncertainty over H20 chip sales to China12.
• • S&P 500 closed at a record 6,481.29 (+0.24%) ahead of Nvidia results; Fed commentary reinforced September rate-cut bets6.
• • HP Inc. topped Q3 revenue estimates on AI PC demand, raised Q4 outlook; shares rose 4–6% after hours8.
• • Snowflake surged 10%+ post-market on a strong Q2 beat and raised full-year guidance; Bill Holdings launched a $300M buyback amid cautious FY26 guidance9.
• • Okta raised its outlook and gained up to 8% after hours; CrowdStrike beat Q2 but guided Q3 revenue light, sending shares down 7%1011.
• • Five Below beat Q2 estimates and lifted 2025 outlook despite ongoing tariff pressures12.
• • Mexico plans new tariffs on Chinese goods in its 2026 budget, responding to U.S. pressure and supply-chain shifts5.
• • U.S. offered India a 25% tariff cut if it stops buying Russian oil, tying trade terms to energy policy4.
• • Pentagon ordered an audit of Microsoft’s cloud services and barred Chinese support, increasing scrutiny on tech sector security3.
• • CDC director ousted after four weeks; FDA revoked Covid-19 vaccine EUAs, adding to healthcare sector uncertainty14.
• • Trump administration proposed fixed time limits for student, exchange, and media visas, potentially impacting U.S. universities and media firms15.
• • Aave launched Horizon, letting institutions borrow stablecoins against tokenized Treasuries and other real-world assets13.

Commentary

Nvidia ’s Q2 results were the focal point, with headline beats on revenue and earnings, a $60B buyback, and slightly positive Q3 guidance1. However, a minor miss in data-center revenue and new regulatory uncertainty over H20 chip sales to China weighed on sentiment, sending shares down 4–5% after hours12. Given Nvidia ’s heavy index weight, this is likely to pressure tech and broader benchmarks in the next session, despite the S&P 500 closing at a record earlier as traders positioned for these results16.

Earnings from enterprise software and cybersecurity firms were mixed. Snowflake ’s strong quarter and raised outlook drove a sharp after-hours rally, while Okta’s raised guidance contrasted with CrowdStrike ’s softer Q3 revenue forecast, which led to a post-market drop91011. HP ’s beat and improved outlook, driven by AI PC demand, and Five Below’s strong retail results highlight selective resilience in consumer and enterprise demand, though both flagged ongoing tariff and supply-chain headwinds812.

Macro and policy developments remain active. The Fed’s dovish tone kept rate-cut expectations firm for September, supporting risk assets6. Meanwhile, Mexico’s planned tariffs on Chinese imports and the U.S. offer to India to cut tariffs in exchange for reduced Russian oil purchases signal continued trade realignment and potential supply-chain adjustments45. The Pentagon’s audit of Microsoft ’s cloud and ban on Chinese support increases compliance risk for tech vendors serving the U.S. government3.

Healthcare and immigration policy added uncertainty: the abrupt ouster of the CDC director and the FDA’s revocation of Covid-19 vaccine EUAs create new questions for the sector14. The Trump administration’s move to impose fixed time limits on student and media visas could disrupt U.S. universities and media organizations reliant on international talent15. In crypto, Aave’s institutional lending platform launch points to further integration of traditional assets with DeFi13.

Traders should watch for continued volatility in tech, especially Nvidia and index-linked names, as well as reactions to mixed software earnings, evolving trade policy, and any regulatory headlines impacting sector sentiment.

TL;DR

Nvidia earnings loom; Fed signals possible cuts; Kohl’s surges on earnings; oil and yields slide.

Highlights

• Nvidia to report Q2 earnings post-close; options market pricing in a ~$270B swing, with results expected to influence S&P 500 direction 57.
• Cambricon, a major Chinese AI chipmaker, posted a 4,348% YoY sales jump, underscoring global AI chip competition 7.
• Fed’s Williams signals rate cuts could be appropriate as US growth slows to 1–1.5%, but policy remains restrictive 2.
• US 2-year Treasury yield fell to 3.65%, lowest since May; curve steepened as traders anticipate Fed easing 3.
• French 30-year OAT yield hit a 14-year high, widening spreads over Bunds and signaling European fiscal concerns 11.
• FDA narrows Covid vaccine eligibility to high-risk groups, ending broad public access; vaccine makers’ shares initially rose, then retreated 1.
• Oil prices fell over 2% despite inventory draws, as Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent could drop to low $50s by 2026 12.
• Kohl’s shares surged up to 27% on strong earnings and improved 2025 margin outlook, triggering a short squeeze 13.
• PayPal shares fell ~2% after a €10B payment disruption at German banks due to a security glitch 8.
• CFTC deployed Nasdaq’s surveillance platform to monitor crypto and derivatives, anticipating broader oversight 10.
• Newmont considering thousands of layoffs to cut costs after Newcrest acquisition, despite strong gold prices and YTD share rally 19.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent ruled out a government equity stake in Nvidia and confirmed Fed chair interviews will start after Labor Day 64.

Commentary

US equity markets are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of Nvidia ’s quarterly results, which are expected to set the tone for the S&P 500 and tech sector given Nvidia’s 8% index weighting and the options market’s implied $270B move 57. The report is particularly significant as Cambricon’s outsized growth in China highlights intensifying global competition in AI chips, a key driver of recent tech valuations 7.

On the macro front, Fed’s John Williams signaled that while policy remains restrictive, slowing US growth may open the door for rate cuts 2. This dovish tilt contributed to the US 2-year yield falling to a three-month low and a steeper yield curve, as traders increasingly price in Fed easing 3. However, persistent inflation expectations and tariff impacts keep the policy outlook data-dependent 2. In Europe, French OAT yields hit multi-year highs and spreads over Bunds widened further, reflecting fiscal concerns and adding to global rate volatility 11.

Commodities saw renewed pressure, with oil dropping over 2% after Goldman Sachs projected a long-term Brent surplus and lower prices, despite inventory draws 12. Gold remains elevated, but Newmont ’s cost-cutting plans following the Newcrest deal underscore margin challenges even in a strong price environment 19.

In corporate news, Kohl’s delivered a notable earnings beat and improved margin outlook, leading to a sharp short squeeze 13. Meanwhile, PayPal shares slipped after a major payment disruption in Germany, raising concerns about operational risk 8. Regulatory developments continue, with the CFTC rolling out Nasdaq’s surveillance tools to monitor crypto and derivatives markets, signaling a more robust compliance framework ahead 10.

Traders should closely monitor Nvidia ’s earnings and guidance for market direction, keep an eye on Treasury yield movements for rate expectations, and watch for volatility in heavily shorted or earnings-driven names.

TL;DR

US doubles India tariffs; Nvidia earnings eyed; EU to scrap US industrial tariffs; VIX shorts peak.

Highlights

• US doubles tariffs on most Indian imports to 50% over Russian oil ties, targeting labor-intensive goods and risking a sharp drop in Indian exports to the US 1.
• EU fast-tracks plan to scrap tariffs on US industrial goods, potentially leading to reduced US auto tariffs on EU vehicles 2.
• Nvidia reports Q2 earnings after the close; expectations are for $46–48B revenue, with guidance on China and next-gen chips in focus 4.
• Hedge funds hold largest net VIX short since 2022, reflecting market calm but raising risk of a volatility spike 8.
• China unveils "AI Plus" roadmap, aiming to triple domestic AI chip output and expand AI integration by 2027 3.
• Crypto funds see $1.4B in weekly outflows, the worst since March, with Bitcoin and Ether ETFs hit by redemptions 11.
• French government faces Sept. 8 confidence vote on debt plan; OAT yields rise, CAC 40 drops, and risk premium over Bunds widens 5.
• Eli Lilly ’s Verzenio shows significant survival benefit in high-risk early breast cancer; stock up 1% pre-market 9.
• OpenAI prepares $8B employee share sale amid ongoing governance talks with Microsoft 10.
• US Commerce Secretary signals major overhaul of H-1B and green-card rules, with possible impact on tech hiring 14.
• Taiwan raises defense spending to 5% of GDP, conducts US military drills as China criticizes Taiwan’s WWII stance 7.
• US CFTC left with a single commissioner after Johnson exit, deepening regulatory uncertainty for derivatives and crypto markets 12.

Commentary

Trade policy is in sharp focus as the US doubles tariffs on Indian imports, a move likely to disrupt supply chains for apparel, gems, and other labor-intensive goods 1. The escalation risks a significant contraction in Indian exports to the US and could add cost pressures for US importers 1. Meanwhile, the EU's accelerated push to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods could pave the way for reduced US auto tariffs on European vehicles, offering some relief for transatlantic manufacturers and signaling a potential easing of trade tensions with Europe 2.

Markets are largely steady ahead of Nvidia ’s earnings, with the chipmaker’s results set to influence sentiment across tech and the broader S&P 500 4. Given Nvidia ’s heavy index weighting and the extreme short-VIX positioning by hedge funds, any earnings or guidance surprise—particularly on China sales or next-gen products—could drive outsized volatility 48. The build-up in VIX shorts suggests traders are positioned for continued calm, but this leaves the market exposed to abrupt risk-off moves if macro or company-specific shocks emerge 8.

China’s new AI roadmap and plans to ramp up domestic chip production underscore ongoing tech decoupling and may pressure US semiconductor firms’ China sales over time 3. In digital assets, the sharp outflows from crypto funds highlight persistent risk aversion and regulatory uncertainty, compounded by the CFTC’s leadership vacuum 1112. Despite this, institutional interest in Ethereum remains strong, as ETF inflows continue 17.

European political risk is back in play with France’s government facing a confidence vote and rising bond yields, which could spill over into global rates markets 5. On the regulatory front, the US Commerce Secretary’s call for a major overhaul of skilled immigration programs could impact tech hiring pipelines, particularly for firms reliant on H-1B visas 14.

TL;DR

Fed rebuffs Trump on Cook ouster; MongoDB, Okta beat and guide up; CFTC faces single-member gap.

Highlights

• Fed rejects President Trump’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook, setting up a legal test of central bank independence before the September FOMC 1.
• Trump threatens new sanctions and tariffs on Russia if Ukraine cease-fire talks fail; U.S. doubles tariffs on Indian imports tied to Russian crude 2.
• Exxon and Rosneft hold preliminary talks in Qatar about Exxon’s potential return to Russia; no agreement reached 3.
• CFTC to operate with a single commissioner after Kristin Johnson’s exit, raising concerns over regulatory oversight, especially in crypto markets 4.
• Trump considers distributing tariff-funded “dividend” checks to Americans; details and timing remain unclear 5.
• Okta and MongoDB deliver strong earnings beats and raise FY26 guidance; MongoDB surges 20%+ after hours, Okta up 4–6% 67.
• Hyperliquid will allocate 99% of trading fees to HYPE token buybacks, boosting HYPE 12%; Justin Sun-linked wallet triggers 200% XPL spike, raising liquidity concerns 813.
• U.S. federal courts issue split rulings on Trump administration immigration policies in Wisconsin and Maryland 14.
• Anthropic launches limited trial of Claude AI agent for Chrome , intensifying competition in browser-based AI tools 15.
• South Korea’s Hanwha to expand U.S. shipyard investment, supporting American maritime capacity and supply chain cooperation 12.

Commentary

Political and regulatory developments are front and center, with direct implications for monetary policy, trade, and market oversight. The Fed’s public rejection of President Trump’s move to oust Governor Lisa Cook sets up a rare legal standoff over central bank independence 1. With the September FOMC meeting approaching, traders should watch for any impact on policy communication or market confidence in Fed governance, as legal uncertainty could inject volatility into rates and the dollar.

On the geopolitical front, Trump’s threat of an “economic war” on Russia—including new sanctions and tariffs—adds headline risk for commodities and global trade 2. The doubling of tariffs on Indian imports linked to Russian crude underscores the administration’s willingness to use trade tools aggressively 2. Meanwhile, Exxon’s reported talks with Rosneft about re-entering Russia are preliminary but highlight the fluidity in Western energy strategy as Ukraine negotiations remain stalled 3.

Regulatory gaps are a growing concern as the CFTC is set to operate with just one commissioner, especially as its crypto oversight expands 4. This leadership vacuum could slow enforcement or rulemaking, increasing operational risk for derivatives and digital asset markets. In parallel, Trump’s floated idea of tariff-funded “dividend” checks is notable for consumer-facing sectors, but the lack of details limits immediate market impact 5.

Tech earnings remain a bright spot: MongoDB and Okta both posted strong results and raised guidance, with MongoDB ’s after-hours surge signaling continued investor appetite for cloud and AI-driven growth 67. In crypto, Hyperliquid’s aggressive buyback policy and the sudden XPL spike following large trades from a Justin Sun-linked wallet highlight both the upside and the structural risks of thin liquidity on emerging platforms 813.

Looking ahead, traders should monitor legal proceedings involving the Fed, updates on Russia-related sanctions, and the CFTC’s regulatory capacity. Strong tech results may support risk sentiment, but headline risk from policy and regulatory uncertainty remains elevated.