TL;DR

Stocks fell on weak jobs data and new Trump tariffs; Fed vacancy, rate cut odds, and volatility rose.

Highlights

• Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned early, giving President Trump an immediate FOMC nomination; 10-year Treasury yield dropped 14.6 bps to 4.214%1.
• U.S. stocks posted their sharpest losses since April: S&P 500 -1.6%, Dow -1.23%, Nasdaq -2.24%2.
• July nonfarm payrolls missed (73,000 vs. 104,000 est.), with downward revisions and unemployment rising to 4.2%2.
• Trump signed new tariffs (10–50%) on imports from non-trade-agreement countries (Canada, Brazil, India, Taiwan), effective August 72.
• Fed-funds futures now price an 80% chance of a September rate cut; 2-year Treasury yield fell 26 bps to 3.7%2.
• Amazon dropped 8% after cloud growth missed expectations, leading tech sector declines2.
• Gold rose nearly 2% to $3,450/oz; VIX climbed above 20 as risk aversion increased2.
• Trump accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics of “rigging” jobs data, adding political pressure to economic reporting8.
• Trump signaled willingness to negotiate tariffs with Brazil’s Lula, but diplomatic tensions remain3.
• U.S. federal judges blocked Trump administration efforts to expand fast-track deportations and roll back TPS protections6.
• Supreme Court signaled potential review of Voting Rights Act Section 2, raising redistricting uncertainty7.
• Walmart de México CEO resigned after weak Q2 profit; Chile’s Barrientos named interim chief5.

Commentary

Friday’s session was marked by a convergence of weak macro data and new policy shocks, driving a broad risk-off move in U.S. markets. The disappointing July jobs report, with a significant miss on payrolls and downward revisions, fueled concerns over labor market momentum2. This, combined with a late-session announcement of broad new tariffs on imports from major trading partners, sent equities sharply lower and triggered a flight to safety in Treasuries and gold 2. The S&P 500 , Dow , and Nasdaq all closed at multi-week lows, with tech stocks particularly hard-hit after Amazon’s earnings miss2.

Bond markets responded decisively to the economic and policy signals. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply as traders priced in an 80% probability of a September Fed rate cut2. The abrupt resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, allowing Trump to nominate a new FOMC member, added to the uncertainty around future monetary policy direction, increasing the risk of a more politicized Fed in the coming months1.

The tariff announcement reignited global trade tensions, with immediate implications for supply chains and sectors exposed to international trade2. While Trump signaled openness to talks with Brazil, the market remains wary of further escalation and potential retaliation3. Defensive assets outperformed, with gold up nearly 2% and the VIX moving above 20, reflecting heightened risk aversion2.

Political and legal developments added further complexity. Trump’s public accusations against the Bureau of Labor Statistics could undermine confidence in official data, complicating the Fed’s policy calculus8. Meanwhile, federal court rulings blocked key parts of the administration’s immigration agenda6, and the Supreme Court’s move to review Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act introduces new uncertainty ahead of the 2026 midterms7.

Traders should monitor follow-through in risk assets, especially tech and exporters sensitive to tariffs, and watch for any signals on Fed nominations or trade negotiations. Rate expectations and volatility will likely remain elevated into next week.

TL;DR

U.S. jobs data disappoints, Trump fires BLS chief and imposes broad tariffs, risk assets sell off.

Highlights

• July U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000, well below forecasts; prior months revised down by 258,000; unemployment rate increased to 4.2%2.
• President Trump fired BLS Commissioner McEntarfer after the weak jobs report, raising concerns about political interference in economic data1.
• Trump imposed new tariffs (10–41%) on imports from 70 countries, with Canada, Brazil, Switzerland, and India among those affected; Dow fell ~600 points3.
• U.S. 2-year Treasury yield dropped ~20bps to 3.76% as rate cut odds for September surged to 90%4.
• Cboe VIX rose above 20 for the first time since June, signaling higher volatility10.
• Fed officials Bostic and Hammack remain data-dependent, warn tariffs could lift inflation despite softening labor data618.
• Trump ordered two U.S. nuclear submarines to reposition near Russia, escalating geopolitical tensions5.
• U.S. sanctions disrupted Russian oil flows to India; Indian refiners increased U.S. and UAE crude purchases8.
• U.S. oil rig count dropped to a four-year low (410), reinforcing expectations for slower domestic supply growth9.
• Tesla ordered to pay $329 million in Autopilot crash verdict; shares down 2%11.
• OpenAI raised $8.3 billion at a $300 billion valuation; Vast Data in talks for $30 billion AI infrastructure round1213.
• U.S. crypto ETFs saw record $12.8 billion July inflows, led by Ethereum products, despite $805 million in crypto liquidations1617.

Commentary

U.S. equities closed sharply lower as a combination of weak labor data and aggressive new tariffs weighed on risk sentiment. The July payrolls miss and historic downward revisions signal a clear loss of labor market momentum, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.2%2. Markets responded with a swift repricing of Fed expectations: the 2-year Treasury yield dropped 20bps and futures now price a 90% chance of a September rate cut34. However, Fed officials remain cautious, highlighting tariff-driven inflation risks even as hiring slows618.

The abrupt firing of the BLS chief by President Trump following the jobs report has heightened concerns about the credibility of U.S. economic data1. This, combined with the announcement of broad tariffs on 70 countries, triggered a broad risk-off move—sending the Dow down 600 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower, and the VIX above 20310. Safe-haven flows supported Treasuries and weighed on the dollar 34.

Commodities and energy markets face cross-currents. U.S. oil supply growth looks set to slow with the rig count at a four-year low9, while U.S. sanctions are disrupting Russian oil flows to India and prompting shifts in global trade patterns8. Meanwhile, defense and aerospace could see selective interest after the U.S. moved nuclear submarines near Russia5, but broader geopolitical risk keeps traders defensive.

In tech, AI remains a focus as OpenAI’s $8.3 billion raise and Vast Data’s funding talks highlight continued investor demand1213. Crypto markets remain volatile, with heavy liquidations16 offset by record ETF inflows—especially into Ethereum —on the back of regulatory clarity and a weaker dollar 17.

Traders should monitor for any late-day Fed commentary, further political developments around economic data, and potential international responses to U.S. tariffs. Defensive positioning and volatility hedges remain in focus into the close.

TL;DR

Trump launches sweeping tariffs; Fed independence questioned; Apple, Amazon beat amid tariff, AI headwinds.

Highlights

• Trump imposes new tariffs of 10–41% on imports from nearly 70 countries; Canada’s non-USMCA goods hit with a 35% rate, Switzerland at 39% (pharma excluded), and EU faces a potential 30% levy with talks ongoing 1758.
• Trump urges the Fed Board to oust Chair Powell unless rates are cut, raising concerns about central bank independence 2.
• Apple projects September-quarter revenue above estimates despite $1.1B in new tariff costs; iPhone sales surged as buyers moved ahead of tariff hikes. CEO Cook signals ramped-up AI investment and openness to acquisitions 36.
• Amazon beats Q2 revenue and EPS estimates, but shares drop 8% pre-market on AWS margin compression and higher AI capex; major banks raise price targets 418.
• F5 Networks reports strong Q3 results, raises Q4 guidance; analysts hike price targets 18.
• Bitcoin ends July at a record $115,700, up 10.4% for the month; August historically weak for crypto and equities 1213.
• South Korea’s KOSPI drops 3% on tax hike plans and U.S. tariffs, dragging down Asian tech shares 10.
• Figma triples in NYSE debut, closing near $60B valuation, signaling strong demand for tech IPOs 11.
• China’s NDRC signals more stimulus to support jobs, consumption, and AI sector growth 9.
• XPeng leads July China EV deliveries, while Li Auto ’s sales drop 40% YoY, highlighting sector competition 14.
• UK Supreme Court to rule on car finance mis-selling, with potential multibillion-pound impact for banks 15.
• Trump envoy visits Gaza to assess aid routes amid stalled cease-fire talks 17.

Commentary

US markets face a complex backdrop as Trump’s sweeping tariffs take effect, targeting a wide range of trading partners with rates up to 41% 18. The move raises input costs for US manufacturers and importers, heightens the risk of retaliatory measures (notably from the EU), and injects uncertainty into global supply chains 58. The short grace period before implementation and ongoing negotiations with the EU and others mean traders should expect headline-driven volatility, especially in sectors with heavy international exposure such as autos, tech, and industrials 58.

The President’s public pressure on the Federal Reserve—calling for the Board to sideline Powell unless rates are cut—adds another layer of risk for rates and FX markets 2. Any perceived threat to Fed independence could move Treasury yields and the dollar, with traders watching for signs of a policy shift or institutional pushback 2.

On the corporate front, Apple ’s ability to guide above expectations despite $1.1B in new tariff costs 3 and Amazon ’s Q2 beat (overshadowed by AWS margin pressure and rising AI capex) 418 highlight both the resilience and challenges facing US tech. Analysts remain constructive on Amazon ’s long-term prospects, and Apple ’s pivot to more aggressive AI investment and potential M&A is notable given its cash position 6. Figma’s blockbuster NYSE debut signals renewed risk appetite for high-growth tech IPOs, which could support broader sentiment if volatility remains contained 11.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin ’s record July close and F5’s strong results offer bright spots, but both face seasonally weaker Augusts 121318. Asian markets are under pressure from South Korea’s tax overhaul and the ripple effects of new US tariffs, with tech names particularly affected 108. China’s NDRC is preparing further stimulus, which could eventually support global demand, but immediate impacts are limited 9.

Traders should monitor tariff implementation details, Fed commentary, and retaliatory trade moves. Key sectors to watch include tech, autos, and industrials, while rates and FX could react sharply to any Fed-related developments 1258.

TL;DR

Apple, Amazon, Alphabet beat; U.S. sets 15% Korea tariff; Trump targets drug prices, pharma pressured.

Highlights

• U.S. to impose 15% tariff on all South Korean imports; Seoul commits $350B to U.S. investments and $100B in American energy purchases 1.
• Alphabet , Amazon , and Apple beat earnings estimates; all highlight rising AI-related capital spending 29.
• Apple warns tariffs will add $1.1B to September costs, with two-quarter impact near $2B; accelerating supply chain shift to India and Vietnam 5.
• Trump orders 17 major drugmakers to match U.S. prices to lowest overseas levels within 60 days, raising pharma sector uncertainty 4.
• Coinbase launches "everything exchange" for tokenized stocks and derivatives; SEC starts updating securities rules for blockchain trading 6.
• Coinbase Q2 profit jumps on investment gains, but revenue misses; shares fall 8% post-market 7.
• Reddit shares rise 10% after 78% revenue growth and strong Q3 outlook; user and ad growth accelerate 11.
• Cloudflare beats Q2 estimates, raises 2025 outlook; shares hit all-time high on 28% revenue growth 12.
• Roku posts surprise Q2 profit, raises 2025 guidance, and announces $400M buyback; platform revenue and ad demand up 14.
• First Solar beats Q2 estimates, raises 2025 revenue forecast, and reports strong bookings; shares up 4–5% post-market 15.
• U.S. Army signs up to $10B software deal with Palantir , consolidating 75 contracts for data analytics and AI 8.
• U.S. keeps 35% Canada tariff threat alive; U.S.–EU trade talks stall on metals and digital taxes 13.

Commentary

Tech earnings continue to anchor market sentiment, with Alphabet , Amazon , and Apple all beating expectations and signaling ongoing investment in AI infrastructure 29. Apple ’s strong quarter was tempered by a disclosure of nearly $2B in tariff costs over two quarters, and a warning that September expenses will rise further if trade policy holds 5. The company is moving more manufacturing to India and Vietnam, but supply chain risk remains tied to tariff developments 5.

Trade policy is again in focus. The U.S.–South Korea agreement averts a steeper tariff but locks in a 15% rate, while Canada faces a 35% tariff threat if talks fail 113. U.S.–EU negotiations remain unresolved on metals and digital taxes 13. These moves increase cost uncertainty for multinationals, especially in tech, autos, and industrials. Pharma stocks face a new overhang after Trump’s directive for 17 major drugmakers to match the lowest global prices in the U.S. within 60 days, though enforcement and legal authority are unclear 4.

In crypto and fintech, Coinbase ’s profit jump was driven by investment gains, but a revenue miss and cautious trading outlook sent shares down 8% after hours 7. The launch of its "everything exchange" and the SEC’s willingness to update securities rules for blockchain trading could have longer-term implications for market structure and competition with traditional brokerages 6.

Growth and tech-adjacent names outperformed after hours: Reddit surged on strong user and revenue growth 11, Cloudflare raised guidance and hit all-time highs 12, Roku posted a surprise profit and buyback 14, and First Solar delivered a beat and raised its outlook 15. Palantir ’s $10B Army contract consolidates government software spending, supporting the U.S. defense tech sector 8.

Traders should monitor tariff headlines, pharma sector responses, and any signals on U.S. trade or monetary policy. The market remains sensitive to supply chain and cost risks, even as tech and growth names show resilience.

TL;DR

Core PCE inflation tops forecasts; tariffs expand to 80 countries; Microsoft, Figma drive tech gains.

Highlights

• Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in June, exceeding forecasts and extending the Fed’s challenge on rate cuts 1.
• Trump administration expands tariffs: 50% on most Brazilian goods, 25% on Indian imports, and wider tariffs on 80 countries set for August 1; US-Mexico agree to 90-day delay on new tariffs 45.
• China halts approvals for outbound investments into the US amid escalating trade tensions 3.
• Trump orders 17 major drugmakers to cut US prices within 60 days or face potential 200% tariffs; Section 232 probe on pharma imports ongoing 2.
• S&P 500 reversed from near 6,400, with options data signaling waning bullish sentiment and increased volatility risk 14.
• Microsoft stock jumped 8.2% on strong Azure growth, surpassing $4 trillion market cap; Figma surged over 200% in NYSE debut 87.
• Google loses Ninth Circuit appeal in Epic antitrust case, must open Play Store to competing app stores and billing systems 9.
• SEC launches “Project Crypto” to modernize digital asset regulation; Visa expands stablecoin settlement to PYUSD, USDG, and new blockchains 615.
• Tether posts record $4.9B Q2 profit, with $127B in US Treasuries, highlighting stablecoins’ growing role in US debt markets 11.
• Roblox shares up 20% on strong bookings growth and raised 2025 outlook; AbbVie and KKR beat earnings and lift guidance 131720.
• Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon meets Trump at White House as administration seeks Wall Street input on economic policy 10.
• US and allies condemn Iranian intelligence threats; US sets Aug. 8 deadline for Ukraine peace deal; US imposes visa sanctions on Palestinian Authority officials 161819.

Commentary

US markets are contending with a mix of sticky inflation, aggressive trade policy, and select tech-driven rallies. The core PCE inflation reading at 2.8%—above expectations and the Fed’s target—complicates the outlook for rate cuts, especially as tariffs on a wide range of imports are set to expand further 14. The S&P 500 ’s reversal from highs and defensive options positioning reflect increased caution, with traders wary of both macro and policy headwinds 14.

Trade remains a central risk. The Trump administration’s widening tariffs—now targeting Brazil, India, and up to 80 countries—are beginning to show up in corporate cost warnings and growth forecasts 4. The temporary 90-day tariff reprieve for Mexico offers some relief for North American supply chains, but China’s freeze on new US-bound investments and the threat of steep pharmaceutical tariffs signal that escalation risk remains high 352. These developments are likely to weigh on multinationals, industrials, and consumer sectors sensitive to input costs.

Tech and digital assets continue to see pockets of strength. Microsoft ’s strong Azure-driven quarter and Figma’s outsized IPO debut highlight ongoing investor demand for AI and cloud exposure, even as broader sentiment turns defensive 87. Google ’s antitrust loss could have longer-term implications for the mobile software ecosystem 9. Meanwhile, regulatory momentum in crypto—via the SEC’s “Project Crypto” and Visa ’s stablecoin expansion—signals further integration of blockchain into traditional finance, with Tether’s record Treasury holdings underscoring crypto’s growing footprint in US debt markets 61511.

Earnings from Roblox , AbbVie , and KKR show that strong execution and guidance can still drive significant stock moves, even in a choppy macro environment 131720. Meanwhile, ongoing White House engagement with Wall Street and new geopolitical deadlines (Ukraine, Iran) add to the late-session headline risk 10161819. Traders should monitor volatility around the S&P 500 6,400 level and remain alert to further policy or geopolitical developments into the close 14.

TL;DR

US-South Korea trade deal cuts tariffs; Ford warns on earnings; Nvidia faces China probe over H20 chips.

Highlights

• China’s cyber regulator summoned Nvidia Corp over alleged backdoors in H20 AI chips, raising risks for its China business as a major H20 order is underway 1.
• U.S. and South Korea finalized a trade deal: 15% tariff on Korean goods (down from 25%), $350B in Korean investment in U.S.-selected sectors, and $100B in U.S. energy purchases 2.
• Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, with threats of further penalties tied to India’s trade with Russia 3.
• U.S.-Mexico trade talks are at a critical point ahead of a possible 30% U.S. tariff on Mexican imports; Trump and President Sheinbaum to hold a last-minute call 4.
• Ford cut its 2025 earnings forecast, citing a $2B hit from Trump tariffs and an 86% profit drop; shares fell 3% 5.
• China’s July factory PMI fell to 49.3, marking a fourth month of contraction and ongoing weak export demand 8.
• The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.5% and raised its inflation outlook, sending the yen higher and lifting JGB yields 9.
• Eli Lilly ’s Mounjaro cut deaths 16% vs. Trulicity in a heart trial, but shares fell 4.9% 11; AbbVie , Biogen , and Bristol Myers all beat estimates and raised guidance 1314.
• Moderna will cut 10% of its workforce amid declining Covid vaccine sales 12.
• Microsoft and Meta received analyst price-target hikes after strong earnings driven by AI and ad growth 20.
• U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continued to see strong inflows, with ETH funds tying a 19-day inflow record 16.
• Comcast and Charter beat revenue estimates; Comcast’s broadband losses narrowed, Charter’s mobile lines grew 15.
• OpenAI’s annualized revenue doubled to $12B, with ChatGPT reaching 700M weekly users; seeking further funding 19.
• Toy makers petitioned the Supreme Court to void Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs; appeals ongoing 7.

Commentary

Trade policy remains a primary driver for U.S. markets. The South Korea deal offers some stability, reducing tariff pressure and securing substantial Korean investment in U.S.-selected industries, with direct benefits for energy, semiconductors, and shipbuilding 2. In contrast, the U.S. is escalating pressure elsewhere: new 25% tariffs on Indian goods 3 and a looming 30% tariff on Mexican imports 4 add uncertainty for supply chains, autos, and industrials. Ford ’s steep profit drop and guidance cut underline the direct impact of these tariffs on U.S. corporate earnings, especially in manufacturing 5.

China-related risks are twofold: the ongoing contraction in China’s manufacturing sector (PMI 49.3) signals continued weak global demand 8, while the cyber probe into Nvidia ’s H20 chips could disrupt semiconductor flows and add friction to U.S.-China tech trade 1. The Bank of Japan’s rate hold, paired with a higher inflation outlook, pushed the yen higher and nudged up Japanese bond yields—potentially influencing global rates and currency flows 9.

In equities, large-cap pharma saw mixed reactions: Eli Lilly ’s positive trial results failed to support its share price 11, while AbbVie , Biogen , and Bristol Myers all delivered beats and raised guidance, supporting sector rotation 1314. Tech remains a leadership group, with Microsoft and Meta buoyed by analyst upgrades following strong AI and ad-driven earnings 20. OpenAI’s rapid revenue growth and ongoing crypto ETF inflows (especially into Ethereum) highlight continued institutional interest in AI and digital assets 1916.

Cable and telecom names outperformed expectations, with Comcast and Charter showing resilience as broadband declines eased and mobile growth accelerated 15. On the regulatory front, the Supreme Court petition on Trump’s tariffs is a potential wildcard for importers and consumer goods 7.

Traders should focus on headline risk around U.S.-Mexico tariff talks 4, ongoing U.S.-China tech tensions 1, and sector rotation in tech, pharma, and industrials. Currency and rate moves—especially in the yen and peso—also warrant close attention 9.

TL;DR

Trump ends $800 duty-free imports; Meta, Microsoft beat earnings; copper futures plunge on tariff clarity.

Highlights

• Trump ends $800 de minimis duty-free import exemption; all commercial imports face tariffs from Aug. 29, impacting e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu 1.
• U.S. finalizes trade deals: South Korea gets 15% tariff (down from 25%), commits $350B U.S. investment and $100B in energy purchases; Pakistan to jointly develop oil with U.S. 2.
• U.S. Treasury imposes largest Iran-related sanctions since 2018, targeting over 115 entities and 50+ vessels tied to Iranian and Russian oil shipments 3.
• White House clarifies 50% copper tariff applies only to semi-finished products, not refined copper; U.S. copper futures drop 19% 4.
• Microsoft and Meta both post strong earnings beats; Meta raises AI capex, shares jump 9–10% after hours 56.
• Robinhood beats Q2 estimates with 45% revenue growth, profit doubles; options and crypto trading surge 7.
• Ford beats Q2 expectations, raises 2025 EBIT outlook despite $800M tariff hit; commercial vehicle strength offsets EV losses 8.
• Semiconductor results mixed: Qualcomm beats but guides cautiously (shares -4%), Arm misses and guides lower (shares -8%), Lam Research beats and raises outlook 910.
• Carvana reports record Q2 profit, raises 2025 outlook; shares up 13–14% on strong sales and margins 11.
• Pelosi backs Senate bill to ban stock trades by U.S. officials, increasing momentum for potential trading restrictions 12.
• Fed Chair Powell says GDP and labor data meet forecasts, but export swings cloud macro signals 13.
• Warner Bros. Discovery cuts 10% of film unit staff ahead of corporate split; restructuring continues amid streaming pressures 15.

Commentary

Trade policy headlines dominated after-hours sentiment. The Trump administration’s removal of the $800 de minimis exemption will raise costs for cross-border e-commerce, directly affecting platforms like Shein and Temu and potentially shifting flows to domestic retailers and logistics providers 1. The move accelerates previously planned legislative changes and could drive short-term volatility in retail and shipping names. Meanwhile, the U.S.–South Korea deal averts steeper tariffs, secures major inbound investment, and locks in large U.S. energy exports, offering some relief to select exporters and U.S. LNG producers 2. The Pakistan oil accord is less likely to have immediate market impact but signals ongoing U.S. efforts to reshape trade relationships 214.

On the commodity front, the White House’s clarification that refined copper is exempt from the new 50% tariff triggered a sharp unwind in U.S. copper futures, erasing domestic price premiums and likely impacting producers and traders positioned for broader tariffs 4. The Treasury’s sweeping Iran sanctions package, targeting a vast oil-shipping network, could disrupt flows to China and tighten enforcement on sanctioned crude, adding a layer of uncertainty to global oil markets 3.

Earnings season highlights continued tech sector strength: Microsoft and Meta both delivered well above-consensus results, with Meta’s raised AI capex guidance and record share price underscoring persistent investor appetite for AI-driven growth 56. Robinhood , Carvana, and Ford all posted strong quarters, with Carvana’s margin expansion and Ford’s resilience despite tariff headwinds standing out 7811. In semis, results were mixed—Qualcomm and Arm flagged ongoing handset and trade challenges, while Lam Research 's upbeat guide points to steady demand in AI and industrial chip equipment 910.

Macro signals remain mixed. Fed Chair Powell noted GDP and labor data are on track, but warned that export volatility complicates the outlook 13. Pelosi’s endorsement of a stock trading ban for officials adds to legislative risk for sectors sensitive to regulatory scrutiny 12. Media sector restructuring continues, with Warner Bros. Discovery ’s layoffs and split reflecting ongoing pressures in streaming 15.

Traders should monitor retail, e-commerce, and logistics stocks for tariff-driven moves 1, watch copper and oil for price volatility as policy shifts filter through 34, and keep an eye on tech and industrials for earnings momentum 567891011. Macro data and further Fed commentary remain key for rates and FX positioning 13.

TL;DR

Fed holds rates; Q2 GDP beats on import drop; Trump tariff deadline looms August 1.

Highlights

• Fed held rates steady at 4.25–4.50% (9-2 vote); two Trump appointees dissented for a cut 1.
• Powell signaled no urgency to cut, citing tariff-driven inflation risks and softer growth 2.
• Q2 US GDP rose 3.0% annualized, beating forecasts, but gains were driven by a sharp 30% import drop; core domestic demand remained weak 3.
• Trump reaffirmed August 1 as the trade deal deadline, threatening new tariffs: 25% on India, 35% on Canada, 50% on Brazil; China remains under 145% duties 5.
• Copper futures fell 16% after the White House excluded copper scrap and refined metal from tariffs, triggering position unwinds 6.
• US crude inventories rose 7.7 million barrels vs. expected 2.6 million draw; WTI near $69.56 as gasoline stocks fell 7.
• US Dollar Index up 2.3% over five days, heading for second-best month in a decade amid strong data and position shifts 8.
• July ADP private payrolls rose 104,000, beating expectations; prior month revised to a smaller loss 9.
• JPMorgan and Coinbase announced a partnership for direct crypto access to 80 million Chase customers; Coinbase shares up 3% 10.
• Meta and Microsoft report earnings after the bell, with AI and cloud spending in focus; options markets price in volatility 14.
• Retail trading activity is surging, rivaling dot-com era levels, driving speculative rallies in stocks and crypto 16.
• Senate panel advanced a stock-trading ban for top US officials; prospects for passage remain uncertain 12.

Commentary

US markets are processing a dense set of macro and policy updates. The Fed held rates unchanged as expected, but the 9-2 split—both dissenters Trump appointees—signals growing internal debate as economic data softens 1. Powell emphasized a wait-and-see approach, citing elevated uncertainty, tariff-driven inflation, and weaker domestic demand 2. Rate cut expectations are now focused on September, pending further labor and inflation data 1.

The Q2 GDP beat masks underlying softness: while headline growth hit 3.0%, this was largely due to a collapse in imports as firms front-ran tariffs. Core measures of domestic demand and business investment were subdued, aligning with Powell’s cautious tone 32. Meanwhile, the labor market showed some resilience with ADP payrolls rebounding, but recent volatility suggests traders should remain cautious ahead of the official jobs report 9.

Trade policy remains a key risk. Trump’s August 1 deadline and tariff threats against India, Canada, and Brazil add to global uncertainty 5. The copper market’s sharp reversal after tariff exemptions highlights how quickly commodity positioning can shift on policy headlines 6. Oil markets absorbed a surprise crude build, with gasoline draws and low inventories keeping WTI stable 7.

The US dollar continues to strengthen, driven by resilient US data and a reversal of short positioning, pressuring G10 FX and supporting the dollar’s outperformance 8. Crypto is in focus with JPMorgan’s Coinbase partnership and new regulatory clarity efforts, but Bitcoin remains rangebound 1011. Equity markets are bracing for volatility as Meta and Microsoft report after the close, with AI and cloud spending under scrutiny 14. Retail trading activity is again elevated, fueling moves in speculative equities and crypto 16.

TL;DR

Fed holds rates; dual dissent likely; U.S. stocks fall; Tesla inks $4.3B U.S. battery deal.

Highlights

• Fed expected to hold rates at 4.5% today; dual governor dissent (Waller, Bowman) likely, raising volatility risk118.
• U.S. equities fell Tuesday, snapping S&P 500 and Nasdaq win streaks as investors await Fed decision and big tech earnings819.
• U.S.-China trade: Beijing welcomes some U.S. curbs lifted, but 145% U.S. tariffs remain; trade talks ongoing2.
• Tesla signs $4.3B battery deal with LG Energy Solution for U.S.-made cells, reducing China supply chain exposure3.
• China signals more fiscal stimulus to counter weak growth; Politburo sets October plenum for further policy4.
• Bitcoin ETF inflows top $50B; Ethereum ETFs see record July inflows, with BlackRock and corporates increasing allocations5.
• Barclays profit up 23% on tariff-driven trading, announces £1B buyback; HSBC and Rio Tinto miss profit estimates, Rio raises dividend1112.
• Eurozone Q2 GDP up 0.1%, beating estimates; France and Spain outperform, Germany and Italy contract7.
• Humana raises 2025 profit outlook above consensus after strong Q2 and contained medical costs9.
• Indonesia to double domestic crypto transaction taxes and hike offshore platform levies from August 115.
• Australia’s Q2 core inflation slows to 2.7%, boosting RBA rate cut expectations; AUD steady ahead of Fed14.
• Oil prices rise on renewed Russia sanctions threats; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields at four-week lows8.

Commentary

Traders face a pivotal Fed day, with the market fully pricing in a rate hold but bracing for a rare dual governor dissent from Waller and Bowman118. This signals a potential shift in the committee’s tone and could increase volatility in rates and FX markets, especially as Powell faces political pressure and moderating inflation1. The statement and press conference will be closely watched for any forward guidance on cuts, particularly given historical patterns where dovish dissents have preceded rate moves1.

U.S. equities pulled back Tuesday, breaking multi-session win streaks as investors digest mixed corporate earnings and await results from tech heavyweights819. The unresolved U.S.-China tariff situation continues to weigh on sentiment, despite Beijing’s positive rhetoric on some curbs being lifted28. Tesla ’s new U.S.-based battery supply deal with LG highlights ongoing efforts by U.S. firms to de-risk supply chains amid persistent tariff headwinds3.

Global macro signals are mixed. China’s commitment to more fiscal support and the Eurozone’s modest GDP beat provide some support for risk assets, but growth remains uneven and policy uncertainty persists47. In commodities, oil prices are higher on threats of new Russia sanctions, while U.S. Treasury yields have fallen as investors seek safety ahead of the Fed8.

Crypto markets remain a bright spot, with institutional demand driving record inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs5. Regulatory tightening in Indonesia and Ethereum’s 10th anniversary highlight the sector’s maturation and global reach1520. Meanwhile, Humana ’s raised profit outlook and Barclays ’ strong trading results stand out in an otherwise cautious earnings environment911.

Key risks today: Fed tone and dissent count, U.S.-China trade headlines, tech earnings, and cross-asset volatility as positioning adjusts to central bank signals18.